• Buresh Blog: Hurricane season forecast update.... July rainfall

    By: Michael Buresh

    Updated:

    Aug. 7, 2019 - Dr. Phil Klotzbach, Colorado State University & NOAA have issued their Aug. seasonal update.  Not a whole lot of change. If accurate, the next few months - which includes the peak of the hurricane season - will have 12 more named storms.... 7 hurricanes & two "major" hurricanes according to CSU with similar - though a pretty wide range - numbers from NOAA.  Of course, no telling at this juncture exactly where storms might go & how strong they might be at landfall but one should always be prepared.  I update "Talking the Tropics With Mike" every day during the hurricane season.

    July rainfall numbers were mixed for the local area of NE Fl./SE Ga.  It's typical, of course, to have a wide range, but this rainy season has been especially fickle.  From our Jax N.W.S.:

    FL   JASPER                      4.45                   
    FL   BEAUCLERC                             7.54
    FL   JACKSONVILLE BEACH                    3.46
    FL   LAKE CITY                    12.96                 
    FL   LAKE CITY 2 E                   11.92       
    FL   GLEN ST MARY 1 W                5.59                 
    FL   SOUTH PONTE VEDRA BEACH SHOP    
    FL   PALM COAST 6 NE          7.49    
    FL   CRESCENT CITY                         7.19            
    FL   GAINESVILLE RGNL AP             4.27        
    FL   HASTINGS 4NE              7.63                                         
    FL   OCALA                    5.56                                               
    FL   WHITE SPRINGS 7N               4.28          
    FL   JACKSONVILLE CRAIG MUNI AP      4.88    
    FL   JACKSONVILLE INTL AP        5.29             
    FL   JACKSONVILLE NAS          4.41                                                                    
    FL   BUNNELL                 8.50                            
    FL   NW PALM COAST                         7.60
    FL   NE PALM COAST                   6.95                          
    FL   FLAGLER BEACH                 6.07                  
     
    GEORGIA:
    GA   PRIDGEN                              4.51             
    GA   ALMA BACON CO AP        7.55                                              
    GA   NAHUNTA 6 NE            4.30                  
    GA   FARGO 17 NE            5.66                                   
    GA   BRUNSWICK             2.94                 
    GA   BRUNSWICK MALCOLM MCKINNON AP       1.72
    GA   WOODBINE                     4.82

    Doppler radar estimated rainfall for July:

    Percent of normal July rainfall:

    Jan. - July, 2019 precipitation is just about right on par for most of Florida, but there has been a large swath of above avg. precip. from the Southwest U.S. to parts of the Northeast U.S.:

    We're entering the time of year when our seasonal tides are higher than avg. largely dictated by the phase of the moon (full & new).  Any onshore flow (from the east) &/or heavy rain can make tides even higher causing at least minor flooding along & near the coast/intracoastal & the St. Johns River & its tributaries.

    From Al Sandrik, Jax N.W.S.:

    Oceanfront: The dates/heights indicated below are for the oceanfront and immediate estuary system near inlets within 2 miles of inlet entrances. Please consult NOAA NOS Tides and Currents for inland estuary points not covered by this document.

    * Saint Simons Island/Sea Island to Cumberland Island (Saint Simons Light tides +1.0 ft Above MHHW):  August 28-31 Peak 1.603 ft Above MHHW 8/30 September 1-2 Peak 1.248 ft Above MHHW 9/1 September 25-Oct 2 Peak 1.687 ft Above MHHW 9/28 October 25-31 Peak 1.741 ft Above MHHW 10/29 November 25-27 Peak 1.262 ft Above MHHW 11/26

    * Amelia Island/Amelia River/Nassau Sound (Fernandina Beach tides +1.0 ft Above MHHW) Dates August 29-31 Peak 1.274 ft Above MHHW 8/30 September 1 Peak 0.999 ft Above MHHW 9/1 Sept. 26 – Oct. 2 Peak 1.431 ft Above MHHW 9/30 November 26 -31 Peak 1.329 ft Above MHHW 11/26

    * Nassau Sound to Ponte Vedra Beach (Atlantic Beach tides +1.0 ft Above MHHW) Dates Peak Value August 30 Peak 1.010 ft Above MHHW 8/30 Sept. 27 – Oct. 2 Peak 1.327 ft Above MHHW 9/30 October 26 – 30 Peak 1.434 ft Above MHHW 10/28 November 25-27 Peak 1.137 ft Above MHHW 11/26

    * Ponte Vedra Beach to Flagler Beach (St Augustine Beach tides +0.75 ft Above MHHW). Including the City of St Augustine and Davis Shores. Dates Peak Value Peak Date Aug. 28 – Sept. 2 Peak 1.230 ft Above MHHW 8/30 Sept. 25 – Oct. 3 Peak 1.367 ft Above MHHW 9/30 October 25-31 Peak 1.505 ft Above MHHW 10/29 November 24-28 Peak 1.232 ft Above MHHW 11/26

    * River/Estuary Areas City of Brunswick (Howe St Pier +1.00 ft Above MHHW) Dates Peak Value Peak Aug. 28-Sept. 3 Peak 1.549 ft Above MHHW 8/31 Sept. 26-Oct. 2 Peak 1.902 ft Above MHHW 9/2 October 26-31 Peak 1.975 ft Above MHHW 10/28 November 24-28 Peak 1.537 ft Above MHHW 11/26

    * St Marys/Kings Bay (KBNSB +0.75 ft Above MHHW) Dates Peak Value Peak Date Aug. 28-Sept. 1 Peak 1.137 ft Above MHHW 8/30 Sept. 27-Oct. 1 Peak 1.035 ft Above MHHW 9/30 October 27-30 Peak 1.155 ft Above MHHW 10/28 November 24-28 Peak 1.102 ft Above MHHW 11/26 December 24-26 Peak 0.846 ft Above MHHW 12/25

    * St. Johns River. (Southbank Riverwalk +0.75 ft Above MHHW). Note: The St Johns River High astronomical tides go through cycles where the daily high tides are at or above MHHW for the period August 22nd to December 13th. So anytime during that cycle a northeaster or sustained heavy rainfall can influence water levels. The dates below are just the dates that have the highest astronomical tides in the river and thus the potential flooding is given a head start. Dates Peak Value Peak Date Sept. 25-Oct. 3 Peak 0.914 ft Above MHHW 9/27 October 8-13 Peak 0.822 ft Above MHHW 10/10 October 17-31 Peak 1.043 ft Above MHHW 10/28

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