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Clusters of t’storms continue to wax & wane over the NW Gulf of Mexico & SW Caribbean. No organization is evident nor is expected.
Several tropical waves are moving west from Africa over the Central & Eastern Atlantic just south of the main plume of dust. No immediate development but something to keep an eye on next week & beyond once into or near the Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico.
Meanwhile... the initial cloud of Saharan dust (5th image below) from last week has spread over the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico & into the Southeast U.S. while gradually thinning/mixing out. Some of the dust has spread east as it encounters a sagging jet stream over the U.S. so some haze for Jacksonville & surrounding areas through the weekend.
A second surge of dust is over much of the Eastern Atlantic & will also travel west in the coming days. The recent dust “activity” is large - perhaps the most extensive in years - but dust clouds as a whole are quite typical for June & July & is indicative of generally dry mid & upper level air which can often times inhibit tropical development. However, I’ve seen tropical systems thrive just outside the dust cloud ... or once away from the dusty atmosphere (see 2004)... so it’s not a “shoe in” that there will be no tropical development just because a lot of dust exists (see Dolly this week & Dorian last year). Other factors have to be considered such as the overall shear values across the Atlantic Basin, general vertical motion values & sea surface temps. which are nowhere near their seasonal peak yet.