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** LOCAL - JACKSONVILLE/NE FL./SE GA. DIRECT IMPACTS FROM THE TROPICS THIS WEEK: NONE
(1) Tropical disturbance (90-L) over the Western Gulf of Mexico was upgraded Thu. evening to tropical depression #22. Gradual & then to “Beta” late Fri. (Wilfred, E. Atlantic... “Alpha” NE Atlantic beat it to the punch!) then came ashore about 11pm EDT Mon. to the east/southeast of Victoria.
Lots of dry air & moderate shear has kept Beta in check. Since the system is over land & will likely - at best - just edge over the extreme northwest Gulf the next couple days, steady state to a slow weakening can be expected. Heavy rain, gusty winds & isolated tornadoes will occur from Southeast Texas into Louisiana. Flooding has already occurred in Houston & will continue into Tue. night. The remnant low will hook up with a cold front while moving east/northeast mid to late week helping to produce heavy rain as far north & east as Tennessee, Georgia & the Carolina’s.
Very dry air just to the west of Beta (in addition to 20-35 mph of shear out of the west):
(2) Depression #20 formed Sat. from a westbound African tropical wave & was upgraded to “Teddy” early Mon., Sept. 14th... to a hurricane early Wed. & became a “major” (Cat. 3+) hurricane Thu. reaching a Cat. 4 by late Thu. but has since weakened. This is the fastest to the 20th storm breaking the record of an unnamed tropical storm Oct. 4, 2005. The Burmuda high shifted more to the east & north allowing for a turn to the north over the Western Atlantic. Teddy stays far to the east of the U.S. - reached Jacksonville’s latitude 1,000+ miles away late Sun./Sunday night - but will maintain easterly swells to the U.S. east coast - & a heightened rip current risk - through the middle of the week as Teddy is a large hurricane. Teddy went a little east of Bermuda Monday - the 2nd hurricane (Paulette Mon., the 14th) near the island within a week.... & to Nova Scotia & Newfoundland by the middle of the week as Teddy bends back to the northwest then to the north over the NW Atlantic while transitioning to a large/powerful post-tropical ocean storm.
(3) Paulette has redeveloped over the Northeast Atlantic! The post-tropical low that was a hurricane over Bermuda more than a week ago - Mon., 09/14 - moved east/northeast then turned sharply to the south moving back over warm enough water to be reborn as a tropical system. This is the longest period between post-tropical low becoming tropical again since Ivan in 2004. Paulette will weaken by late in the week/this weekend.
(4) Tropical storm “Wilfred” formed Fri. over the Eastern Atlantic from a strong tropical wave that looked impressive for a couple of days but has now dissipated over the Central Atlantic though is still evident as a swirl of low clouds east of a cold front. Wilfred breaks the record for the fastest to the 21st named storm - “Vincent” on Oct. 8, 2005 (not the same letter because there was unnamed tropical cyclone in ’05 prior ‘V’ & ‘W’ being used). Wilma, by the way, developed in mid Oct., ’05, so we’re nearly a month ahead of 2005 at this point when it comes to use of the Greek alphabet.
(5) A stationary front - easy to pick out on satellite imagery - will hang over the SW Atlantic into the Eastern Gulf much of this week. We’ll need to watch for any persistent clusters of t’storms/developing low pressure that might try to “go” tropical. Nothing indicated at the moment..
Atlantic Basin wave forecast for 24, 48 & 72 hours respectively (major wave action at Fl./Ga. beaches through early next week due to persistent brisk onshore flow (high pressure to the north) combined with easterly swells from distant Teddy:
September is usually the most active month of the hurricane season:
2020 names..... “Wilfred” was the last name on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random by the World Meteorological Organization... repeat every 6 years... historic storms are retired (Florence & Michael in ’18 & Dorian is certain to be retired from the ’19 list). Interesting side note: the last six of the names on the ’20 list had never been used. So it will be on to the Greek alphabet now. “Gamma” is next... the first time the Greek alphabet has been used since 2005 (total of 27 named storms using 6 Greek letter names in ’05)
Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear:
Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):
Deep oceanic heat content is impressive:
Sea surface temp. anomalies:
SE U.S. surface map:
Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:
Surface analysis of the Gulf:
Global tropical activity:
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