Weather

Talking the Tropics With Mike: Deep upper level trough to move across the U.S. next week

By Mike Buresh, Action News Jax
By Mike Buresh, Action News Jax

Jacksonville, Fl. — The “Buresh Bottom Line”: Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.

STAY INFORMED: Get the * FREE * First Alert Weather app

FREE NEWS UPDATES, ALERTS: Action News Jax app for Apple | For Android

WATCH “Talking & Tracking the Tropics: The Science Behind the Season”

WATCH “Preparing for the Storm”

READ the First Alert Hurricane Center “Survival Guide”

***** ALWAYS CHECK & RE-CHECK THE LATEST FORECAST & UPDATES! *****

The Atlantic Basin is about as quiet as we’ve seen for a number of weeks.

The European model continues to occasionally (not a lot of run to run consistency within itself) to develop low pressure near the Gulf of Mexico next week but is mostly alone in that regard. The UKMET model has low pressure but more north & over the S.E. U.S. A deep upper level trough of low pressure will be sweeping across the Lower 48 next week, so we will need to watch for something “sneaky” over the Gulf or SW Atlantic but no other models for right now are showing much low pressure of tropical concern. But something to consider.

In the longer range.... vertical velocities do appear to become more favorable across the Atlantic Basin by early to mid Oct. “Velocity Potential Anomalies” show a good deal of sinking air (brown lines) right now but more favorable rising air (green lines) should push east from the Pacific generally between Oct. 5 & Oct. 20th which does match a climatological 2nd peak of sorts for Atlantic tropical development.

Atlantic Basin wave forecast for 24, 48 & 72 hours respectively (major wave action at Fl./Ga. beaches through early next week due to persistent brisk onshore flow (high pressure to the north) combined with easterly swells from distant Teddy:



Saharan dust:

2020 names..... “Wilfred” was the last name on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random by the World Meteorological Organization... repeat every 6 years... historic storms are retired (Florence & Michael in ’18 & Dorian is certain to be retired from the ’19 list). Interesting side note: the last six of the names on the ’20 list had never been used. So it’s on to the Greek alphabet now. “Gamma” is next... the first time the Greek alphabet has been used since 2005 (total of 27 named storms using 6 Greek letter names in ’05)

East Atlantic:

Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear:

Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):

Deep oceanic heat content is impressive across the SW Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico & especially the Caribbean:

Sea surface temp. anomalies:

SE U.S. surface map:

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

Surface analysis of the Gulf:

Caribbean:

Global tropical activity:

Cox Media Group