Talking the Tropics With Mike: East Pacific remains active

Only W. Pacific (possibly Taiwan) landfall expected this week

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There are no areas of concern through at least the upcoming week across the Atlantic Basin. A rather persistent upper level trough of low pressure will evolve over the Eastern U.S. over the next 5-10 days. This trough will likely lead to the development of - perhaps - several nontropical surface low pressure systems near the U.S. east coast &/or Western Atlantic. While not a great concern at the moment, these lows will be something to keep an eye on in the longer range for persistent t’storm clusters &/or an attempt at transition to subtropical or tropical systems.

.... And the African “wave train” has started anew. Lots of Saharan dust over the Eastern Atlantic right now, but these waves might be a hint of things to come in the long range &, of course, something to always track once out of the more hostile atmospheric conditions.

Saharan dust. Dry air - yellow/orange/red/pink - is extensive over the Central & Eastern Atlantic. Such widespread dust is common early in the hurricane season - through July - & is indicative of dry air that can impede the development of tropical cyclones. However, sometimes “wanna’ be” waves will just wait until they get to the other side of the plume then try to develop if everything else happens to be favorable.

2021 names..... “Fred” is the next name on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random by the World Meteorological Organization... repeat every 6 years... historic storms are retired (Florence & Michael in ’18... Dorian in ’19 & Laura, Eta & Iota in ‘20). Last year - 2020 - had a record 30 named storms. The WMO decided beginning in 2021 that the Greek alphabet will be no longer used & instead there will be a supplemental list of names if the first list is exhausted (has only happened twice - 2005 & 2020). More on the history of naming tropical cyclones * here *.

East Atlantic:

Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear which is widespread from the Gulf of Mexico & Caribbean eastward across much of the Atlantic:

Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):

Deep oceanic heat content is slowly increasing across the SE Gulf, Caribbean & deep tropical Atlantic:

Sea surface temp. anomalies:

SE U.S. surface map:

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

Surface analysis of the Gulf:


Atlantic Basin wave forecast for 24, 48 & 72 hours respectively:

Impressive hurricane Felicia is over the East Pacific & will remain far from any land areas as the tropical cyclone gradually winds down by mid to late week staying well to the south & southeast of Hawaii.

Another storm - Guillermo - follows & will move west while strengthening - no threat to any land areas.

And a typhoon (In-Fa) - looks to impact Taiwan by late week staying well south of Japan:

Global tropical activity: