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Talking the Tropics With Mike: Fay to make landfall Fri. moving near NYC through early Saturday

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*** Tropical storm “Fay” is moving up the eastern seaboard far to the north of Jacksonville & will have *NO* local impacts on NE Fl./SE Ga.....

Tropical storm WARNING from the Delaware Coast to Connecticut includes NYC & Long Island.....

Tropical storm Fay .... - which originated from a weak upper low that developed low pressure at the surface over the Northern Gulf of Mexico came ashore in the Fl. Panhandle over the weekend - organized enough late Thu. to become tropical storm “Fay” east of the Carolina’s. Close proximity to land + some shear out of the southwest will generally limit overall intensity as the tropical cyclone moves slightly east of due north with a landfall on or near the Jersey coast late Fri./Fri. night moving just west of New York City overnight Friday. Most of the heavy rain & gusty winds will be across the northern half of the circulation with rainfall of 3-6″ & wind gusts of 40+ mph. A few locations along the coast may have a fairly short period of sustained tropical force winds (39+ mph). There will also be the threat of isolated waterspouts & tornadoes.

Once inland, Fay will fairly quickly weaken staying well west of Boston & eventually dissipating near the Canadian border or just into SE Canada.

This is the fastest that we’ve ever reached the 6th named Atlantic storm *but* the storms- so far - have not had big impacts. None of the storms have strengthened beyond a tropical storm & 3 of the storms have been named for less than 24 hours. Even Fay will not likely be named much longer than about 30-36 hours & will remain a fairly “low end” tropical storm.

“Fay” has a history in Jacksonville/NE Fl./SE Ga. Recall that names are repeated every 6 years (unless “retired”)... Fay in 2008 was the storm that would not go away. The tropical storm - just short of hurricane statues while offshore of Flagler Beach - made 4! Florida landfalls & dumped as much as a foot to a foot and a half of rain over NE Fl. - including 6.8″ in one day in Jacksonville on Aug. 22 - and more than 2 feet! in the Fl. Panhandle. There were also a number of waterspouts & tornadoes. One fatality occurred in Duval Co. when a vacationing family went into the ocean & the mother drowned due to rough seas & rip currents.


An active tropical wave is over the Western Caribbean & has run out of “real estate” (landfall over Central America) but is re-emerging over the Eastern Pacific where development is possible while continuing to move west.

Several tropical waves are moving west over the Central/Eastern Atlantic with no organization at the moment. But it does appear the African “wave train” has been set in motion.

Meanwhile... the Saharan dust (4th image below) remains dominant over a good part of the Central & E. Atlantic.

The recent dust “activity” - perhaps the most extensive in years a couple of weeks ago - as a whole is quite typical for June & July & is indicative of generally dry mid & upper level air which can often times inhibit tropical development. However, I’ve seen tropical systems thrive just outside the dust cloud ... or once away from the dusty atmosphere (see 2004)... so it’s not a “shoe in” that there will be no tropical development just because a lot of dust exists (see Dolly last week & Dorian last year). Other factors have to be considered such as the overall shear values across the Atlantic Basin, general vertical motion values & sea surface temps. which are nowhere near their seasonal peak yet.

Bottom line: we have a long ways to go (5 months) yet in the hurricane season with plenty of time to see the active basin we are anticipating.


Atlantic dust:

As we turn the calendar to July.... the SW Atlantic & Gulf of Mexico are generally favored areas for where tropical storms &/or hurricanes first develop:


2020 names..... “Gonzalo” is next on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random by the World Meteorological Organization... repeat every 6 years... historic storms are retired (Florence & Michael last year) & Dorian is certain to be retired from the ’19 list....


East Atlantic:


Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear of which there is plenty across most of the Atlantic at the moment:

Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):

Deep oceanic heat content is extreme over the NW Caribbean:

Sea surface temp. anomalies:

SE U.S. surface map:

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

Surface analysis of the Gulf:

Caribbean:

Global tropical activity shows “Cristina” over the E. Pacific which will not impact any land areas: