First Alert Weather

Talking the Tropics With Mike: Low pressure to develop over SW Atlantic in coming days

Jacksonville, Fl. — The “Buresh Bottom Line”: Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.

STAY INFORMED: Get the * FREE * First Alert Weather app

FREE NEWS UPDATES, ALERTS: Action News Jax app for Apple | For Android

WATCH “Preparing for the Storm

WATCH “The Ins & Outs of Hurricane Season

READ the First Alert Hurricane Center “Survival Guide

LISTEN & WATCH “Surviving the Storm” - WOKV Radio & Action News Jax


REMEMBER WHEN A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE IS APPROACHING: Taping windows is *NOT* helpful & will not keep glass from breaking.

Realize the forecast cone (”cone of uncertainty”) is the average forecast error over a given time - out to 5 days - & *does not* indicate the width of the storm &/or damage that might occur.

* No direct tropical threats for NE Fl./SE Ga. through the weekend (but still a high rip current risk at area beaches)....

Low pressure over the Caribbean was upgraded Mon. morning to tropical storm Lisa & then to a hurricane early Wed. with a landfall just southwest of Belize City late Wed. afternoon about 5:20pm EDT as a Cat. 1 with winds near 85 mph. Lisa rapidly weakened over land but has now re-emerged over the Bay of Campeche & is still producing some heavy convection. While there may be some brief strengthening through Fri. night, mid & upper level shear will increase markedly through the weekend & when coupled with increasing dry air, Lisa should finally dissipate within a few days. There will be no impact to the Lower 48 of the U.S.

The Caribbean is a typical “hot bed” for late season development & will be an area that needs to closely watched for additional development over the next week to 10 days or so. In fact, low pressure will be developing over the SW Atlantic by early next week. It does not *appear* this system will be particularly strong once/if near Fl., but onshore flow should be strong at beaches from Fl. to at least the Carolina’s for an extended period of time with the possibility of significant beach erosion plus at least some coastal flooding. Early indications are that the peak impacts will be from Mon. - Thu. next week, 11/07-10 - stay tuned. The system - which could become “Nicole” - will also produce heavy rain from the Carolina’s to Florida. Exact details are still fuzzy at best, but it is clear this will be a beach beating up & down the east coast from Florida to Virginia.

Low pressure over the Northeast Atlantic well to the northeast of Bermuda that was initially nontropical was upgraded to tropical storm “Martin” Tue. morning & to a hurricane Wed. morning then became post-tropical Thu. afternoon. This was the 7th hurricane of the Atlantic season which climatologically occurs Nov. 15th & is the avg. number of hurricanes per season. There will be no impact to any land areas but Martin will be a very intense & large ocean storm over the far N. Atlantic through the weekend.

Water vapor loop shows pockets of dry air (dark blue) across portions of the Atlantic Basin along with a lot of “swirls” (low pressure) along with “bands” of higher moisture near & ahead of fronts - common as we get deeper into autumn:

November tropical cyclone origins:

Averages below based on climatology for the Atlantic Basin through November:

Wind shear:

Saharan dust spreads west each year from Africa by the prevailing winds (from east to west over the Atlantic). Dry air - yellow/orange/red/pink. Widespread dust is indicative of dry air that can impede the development of tropical cyclones. However, sometimes “wanna’ be” waves will just wait until they get to the other side of - or away from - the plume then try to develop if other conditions are favorable. In my personal opinion, way too much is made about the presence of Saharan dust & how it relates to tropical cyclones. In any case, we’ve had several large dust plumes spread west to the Caribbean & Gulf with the peak of Saharan dust typically in June & July.

2022 names..... “Nicole” is the next name on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random by the World Meteorological Organization... repeat every 6 years). Historic storms are retired [Florence & Michael in ’18... Dorian in ’19 & Laura, Eta & Iota in ‘20 & Ida in ‘21]). In fact, this year’s list of names is rather infamous with “Charley”, “Frances”, “Jeanne” & “Ivan” retired from the ‘04 list (all hit Fl.) & “Matthew” was retired in 2016. The WMO decided - beginning last year - that the Greek alphabet will be no longer used & instead there will be a supplemental list of names if the first list is exhausted (has only happened three times - 2005, 2020 & 2021). The naming of tropical cyclones began on a consistent basis in 1953. More on the history of naming tropical cyclones * here *.

East Atlantic:

Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear:

Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):

Deep oceanic heat content over the Gulf, Caribbean & deep tropical Atlantic:

Sea surface temp. anomalies:

SE U.S. surface map:

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

Surface analysis of the Gulf:


GFS wave forecast at 48 & 72 hours (2 & 3 days):

Atlantic Basin wave period forecast for 24, 48 & 72 hours respectively:

The East Pacific:

West Pacific:

Global tropical activity: