Talking the Tropics With Mike: Low pressure moves inland over N. Carolina

“Cloud” of Saharan dust over the Atlantic

Talking the Tropics With Mike: Low pressure moves inland over N. Carolina

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A cut-off upper (500mb/30,000 feet) low continues to spin over the Eastern U.S. with a weak surface low that has moved onshore of N. Carolina. No tropical threat since the low has moved inland. Heavy rain will pinwheel onshore of N. Carolina & Virginia through Wed. night.

Meanwhile... a good deal of Saharan dust (6th image below) is over the Central & Eastern Atlantic. Such large dust clouds are quite typical for June & July & is indicative of generally dry mid & upper level air which usually inhibits tropical development. However, I’ve seen tropical systems thrive just outside the dust cloud ... or once away from the dusty atmosphere... so it’s not a “shoe in” that there will be no tropical development just because a lot of dust exists. Other factors have to be considered such as the overall shear values across the Atlantic Basin, general vertical motion values & sea surface temps.

In general at this time ... the Basin looks to remain quiet into next week.


Atlantic dust:

2020 names..... “Dolly” is next on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random by the World Meteorological Organization... repeat every 6 years... historic storms are retired (Florence & Michael last year) & Dorian is certain to be retired from the ’19 list....


East Atlantic:


Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear of which there is plenty across most of the Atlantic at the moment:

Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):

Deep oceanic heat content is extreme over the NW Caribbean:

Sea surface temp. anomalies:

SE U.S. surface map:

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

Surface analysis of the Gulf:

Caribbean:

Global tropical activity: