Talking the Tropics With Mike: Low pressure moves into South Texas

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Realize the forecast cone (”cone of uncertainty”) is the average forecast error over a given time - out to 5 days - & *does not* indicate the width of the storm &/or damage that might occur.

Weak low pressure over the far Northwest Gulf of Mexico has moved into South Texas & is producing heavy rain that will continue into Monday resulting in localized flooding & isolated tornadoes/waterspouts. Honestly - this low appears to be & has been more impressive than Colin in early July on the Carolina coast.

Low pressure is shown by the GFS forecast model (the Euro to some degree) to develop east of Chesapeake Bay then turn north/northeast while strengthening through the middle of the week. This may be a feature to keep an eye on if low pressure does indeed develop. A cluster of convection east & northeast of Jacksonville with a surface trough + a tropical wave over the Central Atlantic may all “conspire” in the process in the days ahead. So this low is something to keep an eye on.

The orange, red & pink shows the dry air breaking up over much of the Atlantic Basin though still rather dense over parts of the Central Atlantic in addition to the tropical wave, surface trough & approaching upper level trough over the U.S. that may help foster low pressure off the U.S. eastern seaboard.

Brownsville, Tx radar:

Corpus Christi radar:

Averages based on climatology for the Atlantic Basin through Aug.:.

Wind shear:

Saharan dust spreads west each year from Africa by the prevailing winds (from east to west over the Atlantic). Dry air - yellow/orange/red/pink. Widespread dust is indicative of dry air that can impede the development of tropical cyclones. However, sometimes “wanna’ be” waves will just wait until they get to the other side of - or away from - the plume then try to develop if other conditions are favorable. In my personal opinion, way too much is made about the presence of Saharan dust & how it relates to tropical cyclones. In any case, we’ve had several large dust plumes spread west to the Caribbean & Gulf with the peak of Saharan dust typically in June & July.

2022 names..... “Danielle” is the next name on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random by the World Meteorological Organization... repeat every 6 years). Historic storms are retired [Florence & Michael in ’18... Dorian in ’19 & Laura, Eta & Iota in ‘20 & Ida in ‘21]). In fact, this year’s list of names is rather infamous with “Charley”, “Frances”, “Jeanne” & “Ivan” retired from the ‘04 list (all hit Fl.) & “Matthew” was retired in 2016. The WMO decided - beginning last year - that the Greek alphabet will be no longer used & instead there will be a supplemental list of names if the first list is exhausted (has only happened three times - 2005, 2020 & 2021). The naming of tropical cyclones began on a consistent basis in 1953. More on the history of naming tropical cyclones * here *.