Talking the Tropics With Mike: Low pressure moving ashore near Jacksonville

Heavy rain & t’storms

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Weak low pressure is coming ashore not far from Jacksonville over NE Fl./SE Ga. No further development will occur but bands of showers & t’storms with heavy rain will continue to rotate around the broad circulation.

The weak low is following a narrow alleyway (”soft spot”) east of an upper level ridge & along an upper level trough over the Eastern U.S./NW Atlantic. The low should turn more north while weakening & slowly moving into Ga. & possible reaching S. Carolina. Showers & t’storms should wax & wane into Tue. in association with the winding down counterclockwise circulation.

Saharan dust. Dry air - yellow/orange/red/pink - is extensive over the Caribbean & Central & Eastern Atlantic. Such widespread dust is common early in the hurricane season - through July - & is indicative of dry air that can impede the development of tropical cyclones. However, sometimes “wanna’ be” waves will just wait until they get to the other side of the plume then try to develop if everything else happens to be favorable.

2021 names..... “Fred” is the next name on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random by the World Meteorological Organization... repeat every 6 years... historic storms are retired (Florence & Michael in ’18... Dorian in ’19 & Laura, Eta & Iota in ‘20). Last year - 2020 - had a record 30 named storms. The WMO decided beginning in 2021 that the Greek alphabet will be no longer used & instead there will be a supplemental list of names if the first list is exhausted (has only happened twice - 2005 & 2020). More on the history of naming tropical cyclones * here *.

East Atlantic:

Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear which is widespread from the Gulf of Mexico & Caribbean eastward across much of the Atlantic:

Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):

Deep oceanic heat content continues to increase across the Gulf, Caribbean & deep tropical Atlantic & has become pretty impressive from the Central/NW Caribbean into the Gulf of Mexico:

Sea surface temp. anomalies:

SE U.S. surface map:

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

Surface analysis of the Gulf:


Atlantic Basin wave forecast for 24, 48 & 72 hours respectively:

In the W. Pacific: - weak “Nepartak” - has developed along a broad surface front & will impact Japan over the next couple days but is not expected to be a strong storm & resembles more of a subtropical cyclone. Nonetheless, some heavy rain may affect the Olympic games through Tue. as Nepartak moves north of Tokyo.

Global tropical activity: