Weather

Talking the Tropics With Mike: Monitoring the Caribbean & Gulf

By Mike Buresh, Action News Jax
By Mike Buresh, Action News Jax

Jacksonville, Fl. — The “Buresh Bottom Line”: Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.

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The Atlantic Basin remains relatively quiet.

However, there are indications of potential low pressure developing over the Northern/Northwest Caribbean by the weekend. The European model is showing the deep upper level trough moving across the U.S. this week being strong enough/far enough south to pull the low northeast to the east of Fl. by early next week & continues north/northeast. The GFS model indicates the opposite & takes the low into the Gulf of Mexico where it then meanders. The UKMET has virtually nothing at this point. So this will be an area to watch as an old front/trough is in the area & will be reinforced by the incoming upper level trough.

In the longer range.... vertical velocities do appear to become more favorable across the Atlantic Basin by early to mid Oct. “Velocity Potential Anomalies” show a good deal of sinking air (brown lines) right now but more favorable rising air (green lines) should push east from the Pacific generally between Oct. 5 & Oct. 20th which does match a climatological 2nd peak of sorts (Oct. 15-20) for Atlantic tropical development. This doesn’t mean the U.S. is necessarily in trouble, it just means the Atlantic may become more active again.

Atlantic Basin wave forecast for 24, 48 & 72 hours respectively (major wave action at Fl./Ga. beaches through early next week due to persistent brisk onshore flow (high pressure to the north) combined with easterly swells from distant Teddy:



Saharan dust:

2020 names..... “Wilfred” was the last name on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random by the World Meteorological Organization... repeat every 6 years... historic storms are retired (Florence & Michael in ’18 & Dorian is certain to be retired from the ’19 list). Interesting side note: the last six of the names on the ’20 list had never been used. So it’s on to the Greek alphabet now. “Gamma” is next... the first time the Greek alphabet has been used since 2005 (total of 27 named storms using 6 Greek letter names in ’05)

East Atlantic:

Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear:

Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):

Deep oceanic heat content is impressive across the SW Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico & especially the Caribbean:

Sea surface temp. anomalies:

SE U.S. surface map:

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

Surface analysis of the Gulf:

Caribbean:

Global tropical activity:

Cox Media Group