Talking the Tropics With Mike: NOAA hurricane season forecast.... could be historical

East Atlantic wave moving west

Talking the Tropics With Mike: NOAA hurricane season forecast.... could be historical

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A tropical wave over the Eastern Atlantic has some potential for short term development - in the middle of “nowhere” - through the weekend before the wave moves into a hostile environment full of shear & some dry mid & upper level air. Once the wave gets farther west - over the Western Caribbean &/or SW Gulf of Mexico by next weekend or so, conditions may again become more favorable for development.

Overall... the “wave train” off Africa is going strong & it’s likely just a matter of time before we see significant tropical development over the Atlantic.

Wed., 08/05 it was Dr. Klotzbach at CSU... Thu., 08/06 it was NOAA with their hurricane season updated forecasts. Both are predicting a potentially historic last half of the hurricane season. Bottom line: always be prepared & stay calm. First Alert Hurricane Center * here *.

The graph & map below - the next 2 images - courtesy Dr. Phil Klotzbach showing Aug. landfalling hurricanes:



Saharan dust.... Tropical waves continue to “fester” along the south edge of the dust & have the potential to thrive once away from the dust.

2020 names..... “Josephine” is next on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random by the World Meteorological Organization... repeat every 6 years... historic storms are retired (Florence & Michael last year) & Dorian is certain to be retired from the ’19 list....



East Atlantic:


Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear:

Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):

Deep oceanic heat content is extreme over the NW Caribbean:

Sea surface temp. anomalies:

SE U.S. surface map:

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

Surface analysis of the Gulf:

Caribbean:

Global tropical activity: