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Talking the Tropics With Mike: Old front across Atlantic, Caribbean & Gulf of Mexico

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From Dr. Phil Klortzbach, CSU - the Atlantic Basin through Sept. 23. The ACE increased the last couple of weeks largely thanks to long track Paulette & Teddy but is still relatively low *considering* the high number of storms.

(1) Tropical disturbance (90-L) over the Western Gulf of Mexico was upgraded last Thu. evening to tropical depression #22. Gradual & then to “Beta” late Fri. (Wilfred, E. Atlantic... “Alpha” NE Atlantic beat it to the punch!) then came ashore about 11pm EDT Mon. to the east/southeast of Victoria.

Lots of dry air & moderate shear has kept Beta in check, & the last NHC advisory was issued late Tue. The remnant low will hook up with a cold front while moving east/northeast mid to late week helping to produce heavy rain & perhaps isolated tornadoes between Texas & the Carolina’s.

(2) Depression #20 formed Sat. from a westbound African tropical wave & was upgraded to “Teddy” early Mon., Sept. 14th... to a hurricane early Wed. & became a “major” (Cat. 3+) hurricane Thu. reaching a Cat. 4 by late Thu. but has since weakened. This is the fastest to the 20th storm breaking the record of an unnamed tropical storm Oct. 4, 2005. The Burmuda high shifted more to the east & north allowing for a turn to the north over the Western Atlantic. Teddy stays far to the east of the U.S. - reached Jacksonville’s latitude 1,000+ miles away late Sun./Sunday night - but will maintain easterly swells to the U.S. east coast - & a heightened rip current risk - through the end of this week as Teddy became a large post-tropical cyclone while pounding Nova Scotia & Newfoundland with strong winds, heavy rain & very rough seas/surf. Teddy went a little east of Bermuda Monday - the 2nd hurricane (Paulette Mon., the 14th) near the island within a week. The last NHC advisory was issued late Tue.

(3) A stationary front - easy to pick out on satellite imagery - will hang over the SW Atlantic into the Northern Caribbean & into the Eastern Gulf much of this week (rather unseasonably far south). We’ll need to watch for any persistent clusters of t’storms/developing low pressure that might try to “go” tropical. Nothing indicated at the moment..

Atlantic Basin wave forecast for 24, 48 & 72 hours respectively (major wave action at Fl./Ga. beaches through early next week due to persistent brisk onshore flow (high pressure to the north) combined with easterly swells from distant Teddy:



Saharan dust:

2020 names..... “Wilfred” was the last name on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random by the World Meteorological Organization... repeat every 6 years... historic storms are retired (Florence & Michael in ’18 & Dorian is certain to be retired from the ’19 list). Interesting side note: the last six of the names on the ’20 list had never been used. So it’s on to the Greek alphabet now. “Gamma” is next... the first time the Greek alphabet has been used since 2005 (total of 27 named storms using 6 Greek letter names in ’05)

East Atlantic:

Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear:

Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):

Deep oceanic heat content is impressive across the SW Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico & especially the Caribbean:

Sea surface temp. anomalies:

SE U.S. surface map:

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

Surface analysis of the Gulf:

Caribbean:

Global tropical activity: