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REMEMBER WHEN A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE IS APPROACHING: Taping windows is *not* recommended & will not keep glass from breaking. Instead close curtains & blinds.
Realize the forecast cone (”cone of uncertainty”) is the average forecast error over a given time - out to 5 days - & *does not* indicate the width of the storm &/or where damage that might occur.
*** LOCAL (Jacksonville/NE Fl./SE Ga.) IMPACTS FROM THE TROPICS: None. We will continue to have rough seas & surf into next week due to strong onshore flow causing some minor to moderate flooding at times of high tide along the coast, intracoastal, St. Johns River & its tributaries with some extra boost from a weekend full moon.
The Atlantic Basin Overview:
** Tropical depression #17 formed over the Eastern Atlantic a week ago Sat. morning & was upgraded to tropical storm “Philippe” late in the afternoon...
** A strong tropical wave at a lower latitude & just to the southeast of Philippe has been upgraded to tropical storm “Rina”, the 18th named Atlantic storm of the season...
** A strong tropical wave is moving W/NW to the east of Philippe...
(1) A strong tropical wave - ‘90-L’ was upgraded to tropical depression #17 midday Saturday over the Eastern Atlantic then to tropical storm “Philippe”, the 16th named storm of the busy ‘23 hurricane season. Philippe is struggling against strong shear out of the west & southwest + some dry air. It now appears Philippe will be weak enough to eventually be steered by the low level trade winds turning the system a bit west, even southwest by through the weekend but only very slowly. It now looks like Philippe will stay east of the Caribbean but may be close enough to produce some heavy rain. Most of the heaviest rain is over the eastern part of the circulation which may keep the heaviest rain east of Puerto Rico.
Philippe’s poorly defined center will likely jump around some as convection waxes & wanes. Forecast models are struggling with the movement & intensity of Philippe as well as some recent interaction with Rina which is going by the wayside as Rina dissipates. Philippe should soon turn rather sharply northward then northeast over the open water of the Atlantic possibly intensifying into a hurricane.
(2) A strong tropical wave - ‘91-L’ has come off the coast of Africa last weekend was upgraded to tropical cyclone - “Rina” Thu. morning. As the 18th named storm of the season, 2023 now only ranks behind 2020 & the 2021 as the most named Atlantic storms through Sept. 28th. Rina should move northwest over the open Atlantic through the middle of the week. As mentioned in the discussion about Philippe above, there’s at least some interaction between the two tropical cyclones. It appears now that Rina will be the weaker storm & will eventually dissipate largely due to strong shear.
Check out the upper oceanic heat content (UOHC) [tropical cyclone heat potential/TCHP] across the SW Atlantic, Gulf & Caribbean. The warmth is very deep. But keep in mind warm ocean temps. alone doesn’t necessarily equate to a “big” hurricane season (need other ingredients & factors to be favorable too) but it’s obvious there is a lot of very warm water at great depths over the Caribbean & Gulf of Mexico stretching eastward all the way into the Central Atlantic:
Water vapor loop (dark blue/yellow is dry mid & upper level air):
October tropical cyclone origins:
Averages below based on climatology for the Atlantic Basin for October:
Saharan dust spreads west each year from Africa by the prevailing winds (from east to west over the Atlantic). Dry air - yellow/orange/red/pink. Widespread dust is indicative of dry air that can impede the development of tropical cyclones. However, sometimes “wanna’ be” waves will just wait until they get to the other side of - or away from - the plume then try to develop if other conditions are favorable. In my personal opinion, way too much is made about the presence of Saharan dust & how it relates to tropical cyclones. In any case, the peak of Saharan dust typically is in June & July.
2023 names..... “Sean” is the next name on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random by the World Meteorological Organization... repeat every 6 years). Historic storms are retired [Florence & Michael in ’18... Dorian in ’19 & Laura, Eta & Iota in ‘20, Ida in ‘21 & Fiona & Ian in ‘22]). In fact, this year’s list of names is rather infamous with “Katrina”, “Rita” & “Wilma” retired from the ‘05 list & “Harvey”, “Irma”,“Maria” & “Nate” from the ‘17 list. The WMO decided - beginning in 2021 - that the Greek alphabet will be no longer used & instead there will be a supplemental list of names if the first list is exhausted (has only happened three times - 2005, 2020 & 2021). The naming of tropical cyclones began on a consistent basis in 1953. More on the history of naming tropical cyclones * here *.
Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear:
Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):
Deep oceanic heat content over the Gulf, Caribbean & deep tropical Atlantic. The brighter colors are expanding dramatically as we near the peak of the hurricane season.:
Sea surface temp. anomalies:
SE U.S. surface map:
Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:
Surface analysis of the Gulf:
Atlantic Basin wave period forecast for 24, 48, 72 & 96 hours respectively:
Global tropical activity:
Cox Media Group