Talking the Tropics With Mike: Potential for Western Gulf development in long term

Could be a combination of “disturbed” weather from Western Caribbean & far E. Pacific

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Moving into the 2nd week of the hurricane season, there are no areas of immediate concern over the Atlantic basin.

There are hints in some long range forecast models of possible “mischief” over the Gulf - particularly the Western & Northwest Gulf through next week. The disturbance may come from an area of low pressure that will slowly evolve near Central America later this week into the weekend then gradually move northwest & north. There may also be some input from developing low pressure over the far E. Pacific off the coast of Central America. This evolution will likely be gradual & should - at the very least - bring more heavy rain to soaked areas of the Gulf Coast from Texas to Mississippi & Alabama.

Progression of the hurricane season (tropical storms vs. hurricanes vs. Cat. 3+ hurricanes) through Nov.:

Saharan dust. Dry air - yellow/orange/red/pink - is extensive over especially the Central & Eastern Atlantic. Such widespread dust is quite common early in the hurricane season:

2021 names..... “Bill” is the next name on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random by the World Meteorological Organization... repeat every 6 years... historic storms are retired (Florence & Michael in ’18... Dorian in ’19 & Laura, Eta & Iota in ‘20). Last year - 2020 - had a record 30 named storms. The WMO decided beginning in 2021 that the Greek alphabet will be no longer used & instead there will be a supplemental list of names if the first list is exhausted (has only happened twice - 2005 & 2020). More on the history of naming tropical cyclones * here *.

A pretty active tropical wave - especially for this early in the season - has emerged off the coast of Africa but long range development seems unlikely.

East Atlantic:

Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear which is widespread from the Gulf of Mexico & Caribbean eastward across much of the Atlantic:

Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):

Deep oceanic heat content is lacking but typical for so early in the season:

Sea surface temp. anomalies:

SE U.S. surface map:

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

Surface analysis of the Gulf:


Atlantic Basin wave forecast for 24, 48 & 72 hours respectively:

Global tropical activity: