Talking the Tropics With Mike: Slow moving tropical wave over Central Atlantic

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REMEMBER WHEN A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE IS APPROACHING: Taping windows is *NOT* helpful & will not keep glass from breaking.

Realize the forecast cone (”cone of uncertainty”) is the average forecast error over a given time - out to 5 days - & *does not* indicate the width of the storm &/or damage that might occur.

** No tropical systems will directly impact Jacksonville/NE Fl./SE Ga. through this week.... **

The peak of the Atlantic hurricane season is here!

It was 5 years ago that the Jacksonville/NE Fl. & SE Ga. area was cleaning up from Irma after a slow move northward up the western spine of the Fl. Peninsula. Heavy rain, strong winds & a few tornadoes occurred from Sept. 10-12 with the peak of an historic downtown Jacksonville flood on Sept. 11th. A full accounting of the storm is in the “Buresh Blog” * here *.

As for the current status of the Atlantic Basin:

There are several tropical waves over the E. & Central Atlantic to track. A lead wave is producing a large area - albeit disorganized - of showers & t’storms over the Central Atlantic. The wave is moving slowly west/northwest & forecast models only show modest development, if any at all. Shear is fairly strong right now along with pockets of dry mid & upper level air. Another wave is coming off the coast of Africa & moving westward.

There are indications by some of the long range forecast models of a - initially - nontropical low developing over the far Western Atlantic east of the Carolina’s that would then move northeast. Something to monitor toward the weekend.

South Florida Water Management District Fl. radar imagery:

September origins:

Averages below based on climatology for the Atlantic Basin through September. This season so far is well below avg.:

Wind shear:

Saharan dust spreads west each year from Africa by the prevailing winds (from east to west over the Atlantic). Dry air - yellow/orange/red/pink. Widespread dust is indicative of dry air that can impede the development of tropical cyclones. However, sometimes “wanna’ be” waves will just wait until they get to the other side of - or away from - the plume then try to develop if other conditions are favorable. In my personal opinion, way too much is made about the presence of Saharan dust & how it relates to tropical cyclones. In any case, we’ve had several large dust plumes spread west to the Caribbean & Gulf with the peak of Saharan dust typically in June & July.

2022 names..... “Fiona” is the next name on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random by the World Meteorological Organization... repeat every 6 years). Historic storms are retired [Florence & Michael in ’18... Dorian in ’19 & Laura, Eta & Iota in ‘20 & Ida in ‘21]). In fact, this year’s list of names is rather infamous with “Charley”, “Frances”, “Jeanne” & “Ivan” retired from the ‘04 list (all hit Fl.) & “Matthew” was retired in 2016. The WMO decided - beginning last year - that the Greek alphabet will be no longer used & instead there will be a supplemental list of names if the first list is exhausted (has only happened three times - 2005, 2020 & 2021). The naming of tropical cyclones began on a consistent basis in 1953. More on the history of naming tropical cyclones * here *.

East Atlantic:

Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear:

Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):

Deep oceanic heat content over the Gulf, Caribbean & deep tropical Atlantic:

Sea surface temp. anomalies:

SE U.S. surface map:

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

Surface analysis of the Gulf:

Caribbean:

GFS wave forecast at 48 & 72 hours (2 & 3 days):

Atlantic Basin wave period forecast for 24, 48 & 72 hours respectively:

Updated Atlantic seasonal forecast from early Aug. - NOAA & CSU:

The East Pacific:

West Pacific:

Global tropical activity:

“Muifa” over the W. Pacific is forecast to move to near Shanghai, China by Wed./Thu. while weakening but still potentially producing strong winds & heavy rain.

“Merbok” is forecast to stay over the open water of the W. Pacific turning northeast well to the east of mainland Japan:

Cox Media Group