Weather

Talking the Tropics With Mike: Strengthening Epsilon over the Central Atlantic

By Mike Buresh, Action News Jax
By Mike Buresh, Action News Jax

Jacksonville, Fl. — The “Buresh Bottom Line”: Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.

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The Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico & SW Atlantic will remain the areas to keep an eye on over the next couple of weeks (climatologically favored too). However, there is nothing immediately threatening through this week with the exception of Bermuda (Epsilon).

Areas to Watch:

(1) low pressure over the Central Atlantic evolved from an upper low, became t.d. #27 Mon. morning & then to tropical storm Epsilon within a few hours - the fastest to the 27th storm breaking the record set in - of course - 2005.... & became a hurricane Tue. Epsilon will drift northwest then a northward heading later this week before turning northeast & accelerating by the weekend. The tropical cyclone will stay over the Central Atlantic far to the east of the U.S. east coast but will move just east of Bermuda Thu./Fri. While the core of the hurricane looks like it’ll miss Bermuda, strong winds & rough seas/surf will still affect the island through the end of the week.

(2) Caribbean - forecast models have generally backed off on low pressure & an eventual tropical cyclone over/near the Caribbean that then moves north/northeast through the end of the month. There are some hints now of low pressure developing near Fl. late in the weekend/early next week then moving rather quickly to the northeast over the Atlantic. An inverted trough is evident near Fl. through the weekend which can sometimes lead to low pressure then tropical development, especially late in the season. The Caribbean is an area favored for late season tropical development in addition to the SE Gulf & SW Atlantic.

Where Atlantic tropical cyclones have formed mid to late Oct. since 1966, by Phil Klotzbach:

Satellite below shows disorganized showers & t’storms over the Bahamas, Fl. Straits & Caribbean... Epsilon over the Central Atlantic far to the southeast of Bermuda... & a strong tropical wave over the Eastern Atlantic at a low latitude but which has little chance to make it very far west....

October tropical cyclone origin points are clustered over the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico & SW Atlantic:

Atlantic Basin wave forecast for 24, 48 & 72 hours respectively:



Saharan dust:

2020 names..... “Wilfred” was the last name on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random by the World Meteorological Organization... repeat every 6 years... historic storms are retired (Florence & Michael in ’18 & Dorian is certain to be retired from the ’19 list). Interesting side note: the last six of the names on the ’20 list had never been used. So it’s on to the Greek alphabet now. “Zeta” is next... the first time the Greek alphabet has been used since 2005 (total of 27 named storms using 6 Greek letter names in ’05)

East Atlantic:

Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear:

Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):

Deep oceanic heat content is impressive across the SW Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico & especially the Caribbean:

Sea surface temp. anomalies:

SE U.S. surface map:

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

Surface analysis of the Gulf:

Caribbean:

Global tropical activity:


Cox Media Group