Talking the Tropics With Mike: Strong E. Atlantic tropical wave

Forecast models not "excited"

Talking the Tropics With Mike: Strong E. Atlantic tropical wave

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Tropical waves continue to roll west off the coast of Africa. It’s just a matter of time before one of these waves “takes off” but atmospheric conditions - right now - are not particularly conducive for development.

One wave in particular is strong & shows signs of organization just off the African coast. This wave could become a tropical storm within the next few days. The environment appears marginal which could keep the wave “in check”.

We also need to monitor the Western Caribbean &/or Gulf of Mexico for possible development over the next week or two as waves get farther west into a more favorable area for development.

Overall conditions over the Atlantic Basin appear “ready to go” as we head into mid to late Aug. - particularly the 20th-31st then on into Sept.

Wed., 08/05 it was Dr. Klotzbach at CSU... Thu., 08/06 it was NOAA with their hurricane season updated forecasts. Both are predicting a potentially historic last half of the hurricane season. Bottom line: always be prepared & stay calm. First Alert Hurricane Center * here *.

The graph & map below - the next 2 images - courtesy Dr. Phil Klotzbach showing Aug. landfalling hurricanes:

Saharan dust.... Tropical waves continue to “fester” along the south edge of the dust & have the potential to thrive once away from the dust.

2020 names..... “Josephine” is next on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random by the World Meteorological Organization... repeat every 6 years... historic storms are retired (Florence & Michael last year) & Dorian is certain to be retired from the ’19 list....

East Atlantic:

Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear:

Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):

Deep oceanic heat content is impressive for the first couple weeks of Aug.:

Sea surface temp. anomalies:

SE U.S. surface map:

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

Surface analysis of the Gulf:


Global tropical activity: