Weather

Talking the Tropics With Mike: Tropical disturbance finally becomes a tropical storm - Alex

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REMEMBER WHEN A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE IS APPROACHING: Taping windows is *NOT* helpful & will not keep glass from breaking.

Realize the forecast cone (”cone of uncertainty”) is the average forecast error over a given time - out to 5 days - & *does not* indicate the width of the storm &/or damage that might occur.

The tropical disturbance that developed near the Yucatan Peninsula the middle of last week has finally been deemed a tropical storm, courtesy NHC forecaster Eric Blake.

*No further impacts for the U.S.*... & there are no other areas of concern at this point over the Atlantic Basin....

The area of “disturbed” weather - ‘91-L’ - disorganized clusters/bands of showers & heavy thunderstorms - crossed Florida dropping more than a half foot of rain on parts of South Florida Fri.-Sat. Weak low pressure formed near the northeast coast of the Yucatan Peninsula Thursday (Agatha dissipated over Mexico early this week) & is accelerating east/northeast over the W. Atlantic. While sea surface temps. are seasonally warm - 80+ degrees F - ... mid & upper level moisture has been shunted east... & shear out of the west remains strong - 30+ mph [in some instances 50+ mph!] - so the center remains well displaced to the west of the strong convection.

The GFS model & European model have had wide differences - especially in location & intensity. The GFS was a stud last hurricane season, & hats off to the model on Alex (GFS did well w/ Agatha over the E. Pacific last week). The track will continue east/northeast with increasing forward speed moving near Bermuda Mon. afternoon then transitioning to a post-tropical cyclone (if the system isn’t so torn apart by shear that it degenerates into a low pressure trough sooner). There will be no further impacts on the U.S.

Wind shear analysis shows winds out of the west at more than 50 mph! over parts of the Southern Gulf & N. Caribbean:

The location of development of tropical systems in June since 1851 generally favors the NW Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico & far Western Atlantic:


Saharan dust is spread west each year from Africa by the prevailing winds (from east to west over the Atlantic). Dry air - yellow/orange/red/pink. Widespread dust is indicative of dry air that can impede the development of tropical cyclones. However, sometimes “wanna’ be” waves will just wait until they get to the other side of - or away from - the plume then try to develop if other conditions are favorable. In my personal opinion, way too much is made about the presence of Saharan dust & how it relates to tropical cyclones. In any case, we’ve already has a couple of dust plumes spread west to the Caribbean & Gulf with the peak of Saharan dust typically in June & July.

2022 names..... “Alex” is the first name on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random by the World Meteorological Organization... repeat every 6 years... historic storms are retired [Florence & Michael in ’18... Dorian in ’19 & Laura, Eta & Iota in ‘20 & Ida in ‘21]). The WMO decided - beginning last year - that the Greek alphabet will be no longer used & instead there will be a supplemental list of names if the first list is exhausted (has only happened three times - 2005, 2020 & 2021). The naming of tropical cyclones began on a consistent basis in 1953. More on the history of naming tropical cyclones * here *.

East Atlantic:

Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear:

Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):

Deep oceanic heat content over the Gulf, Caribbean & deep tropical Atlantic:

Sea surface temp. anomalies:

SE U.S. surface map:

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

Surface analysis of the Gulf:

Caribbean:

GFS wave forecast at 48 & 72 hours (2 & 3 days):

Atlantic Basin wave period forecast for 24, 48 & 72 hours respectively:

The East Pacific:

West Pacific IR satellite:

Global tropical activity: