Talking the Tropics With Mike: Two tropical systems over the East Pacific

The Atlantic Basin remains quiet

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Realize the forecast cone (”cone of uncertainty”) is the average forecast error over a given time - out to 5 days - & *does not* indicate the width of the storm &/or damage that might occur.

The Atlantic Basin remains quiet & no tropical development is expected through the weekend.

While tropical waves continue to move west from Africa, dry mid & upper level air + a good deal of shear appear to be ruling the day helping to allow little or no development - at this point - of any of the waves.

The globe as a whole remains quiet as has been the case all year. The W. Pacific is nearing a record for the lack of tropical cyclones. The chart below is from CSU (Dr. Phil Klotzbach) & shows the Atlantic Basin is below average for Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) & is way below avg. globally (the peak for the Atlantic Basin is not until Sept. 10). Only the NE Pacific is above avg.:

Wind shear:

The location of development of tropical systems in July since 1851 generally favors the NW Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico & far Western Atlantic:


Saharan dust spreads west each year from Africa by the prevailing winds (from east to west over the Atlantic). Dry air - yellow/orange/red/pink. Widespread dust is indicative of dry air that can impede the development of tropical cyclones. However, sometimes “wanna’ be” waves will just wait until they get to the other side of - or away from - the plume then try to develop if other conditions are favorable. In my personal opinion, way too much is made about the presence of Saharan dust & how it relates to tropical cyclones. In any case, we’ve had several large dust plumes spread west to the Caribbean & Gulf with the peak of Saharan dust typically in June & July.

2022 names..... “Danielle” is the next name on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random by the World Meteorological Organization... repeat every 6 years). Historic storms are retired [Florence & Michael in ’18... Dorian in ’19 & Laura, Eta & Iota in ‘20 & Ida in ‘21]). In fact, this year’s list of names is rather infamous with “Charley”, “Frances”, “Jeanne” & “Ivan” retired from the ‘04 list (all hit Fl.) & “Matthew” was retired in 2016. The WMO decided - beginning last year - that the Greek alphabet will be no longer used & instead there will be a supplemental list of names if the first list is exhausted (has only happened three times - 2005, 2020 & 2021). The naming of tropical cyclones began on a consistent basis in 1953. More on the history of naming tropical cyclones * here *.

East Atlantic:

Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear:

Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):

Deep oceanic heat content over the Gulf, Caribbean & deep tropical Atlantic:

Sea surface temp. anomalies:

SE U.S. surface map:

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

Surface analysis of the Gulf:

Caribbean:

GFS wave forecast at 48 & 72 hours (2 & 3 days):

Atlantic Basin wave period forecast for 24, 48 & 72 hours respectively:

The East Pacific:

A pair of tropical cyclones are over the East Pacific. Frank is the dominant one but will remain away from land while Georgette to the northwest will eventually feel the effects of the stronger/larger Frank with some binary interaction possible as Georgette weakens through the weekend.

West Pacific IR satellite:

Global tropical activity: