Talking the Tropics With Mike: Typical June origin spots for developing tropical systems

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There are no areas of immediate concern over the Atlantic basin as we move through the first week of the ‘21 hurricane season.

There is a weak upper level low over the Bahamas east of Florida but tropical development is not expected.

June origin points for tropical cyclones shows the SW Atlantic, NW Caribbean & Gulf of Mexico as the “hot spots” though only about every other June averages a single named storm:

Progression of the hurricane season (tropical storms vs. hurricanes vs. Cat. 3+ hurricanes) through Nov.:

Forecasts are for an active season. Averages have been adjusted based on the 30-year period from 1991-2020.

Saharan dust. Dry air - yellow/orange/red/pink - is extensive over especially the Central & Eastern Atlantic. Such widespread dust is quite common early in the hurricane season:

2021 names..... “Bill” is the next name on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random by the World Meteorological Organization... repeat every 6 years... historic storms are retired (Florence & Michael in ’18... Dorian in ’19 & Laura, Eta & Iota in ‘20). Last year - 2020 - had a record 30 named storms. The WMO decided beginning in 2021 that the Greek alphabet will be no longer used & instead there will be a supplemental list of names if the first list is exhausted (has only happened twice - 2005 & 2020). More on the history of naming tropical cyclones * here *.

East Atlantic:

Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear which is widespread from the Gulf of Mexico & Caribbean eastward across much of the Atlantic:

Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):

Deep oceanic heat content is lacking but typical for so early in the season:

Sea surface temp. anomalies:

SE U.S. surface map:

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

Surface analysis of the Gulf:

Caribbean:

Atlantic Basin wave forecast for 24, 48 & 72 hours respectively:

Global tropical activity:

Cox Media Group