Talking the Tropics With Mike: Upper trough of low pressure remains near Florida/SE U.S. coast

Weak nontropical low over the N. Atlantic

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A weak upper trough/low pressure area persists from the Bahamas to Florida while turning more northward around the western edge of the Bermuda High over the Atlantic. No surface development is expected but there will continue to be an uptick in heavy showers & t’storms for Florida, the Bahamas & nearby areas through midweek.

Weak nontropical low pressure is over the N. Atlantic. This low will meander for several days then will finally be picked up by a trough of low pressure & pulled north & northeast. Some slow tropical development is not out of the question, but the system looks to stay east of the U.S.

And there’s an easy to spot swirl over the Central Atlantic - a large upper level low. No tropical development is expected from this feature while it moves slowly & gradually dissipates.

Saharan dust. Dry air - yellow/orange/red/pink - is extensive over the Central & Eastern Atlantic. Such widespread dust is common early in the hurricane season & is indicitive of dry air that can impede the development of tropical cyclones. However, sometimes “wanna’ be” waves will just wait until they get to the other side of the plume then try to develop.

2021 names..... “Fred” is the next name on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random by the World Meteorological Organization... repeat every 6 years... historic storms are retired (Florence & Michael in ’18... Dorian in ’19 & Laura, Eta & Iota in ‘20). Last year - 2020 - had a record 30 named storms. The WMO decided beginning in 2021 that the Greek alphabet will be no longer used & instead there will be a supplemental list of names if the first list is exhausted (has only happened twice - 2005 & 2020). More on the history of naming tropical cyclones * here *.

East Atlantic:

Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear which is widespread from the Gulf of Mexico & Caribbean eastward across much of the Atlantic:

Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):

Deep oceanic heat content is slowly increasing across the SE Gulf, Caribbean & deep tropical Atlantic:

Sea surface temp. anomalies:

SE U.S. surface map:

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

Surface analysis of the Gulf:


Atlantic Basin wave forecast for 24, 48 & 72 hours respectively:

Global tropical activity: