Talking the Tropics With Mike: Waiting for the Atlantic to “pop” again

Multiple African tropical waves rolling west

Talking the Tropics With Mike: Waiting for the Atlantic to “pop” again

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There are multiple tropical waves moving west across the Atlantic. None of them appear destined for significant development in the short term, but I still believe we have to monitor the Western Caribbean &/or Southern/SW Gulf of Mexico in the long term - 7-14 days. Heck - it’s not even out of the question that one of these seemingly “floundering” waves tries to come to life over the SW Atlantic.

Overall conditions over the Atlantic Basin become more favorable as we head into mid to late Aug. - particularly the 20th-31st then on into Sept.

Wed., 08/05 it was Dr. Klotzbach at CSU... Thu., 08/06 it was NOAA with their hurricane season updated forecasts. Both are predicting a potentially historic last half of the hurricane season. Bottom line: always be prepared & stay calm. First Alert Hurricane Center * here *.

The graph & map below - the next 2 images - courtesy Dr. Phil Klotzbach showing Aug. landfalling hurricanes:

Saharan dust.... Tropical waves continue to “fester” along the south edge of the dust & have the potential to thrive once away from the dust.

2020 names..... “Josephine” is next on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random by the World Meteorological Organization... repeat every 6 years... historic storms are retired (Florence & Michael last year) & Dorian is certain to be retired from the ’19 list....

East Atlantic:

Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear:

Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):

Deep oceanic heat content is impressive for the first couple weeks of Aug.:

Sea surface temp. anomalies:

SE U.S. surface map:

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

Surface analysis of the Gulf:


Global tropical activity: