Talking the Tropics With Mike: Weak low pressure to form W. Atlantic

Low will stay well offshore

Talking the Tropics With Mike: Weak low pressure to form W. Atlantic

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Low pressure will be developing this week over the W. Atlantic to the east of the Carolina’s before moving northeast. A bit of tropical development is possible, but the low stays east of the U.S. over the Atlantic through the week while merging with a cold front.

Several tropical waves are moving west from Africa over the Central & Eastern Atlantic & low latitudes just south of the main plume of dust. No immediate development but something to keep an eye on once/if further west.

Meanwhile... the Saharan dust (5th image below) remains dominant over the E. Atlantic but has thinned & dispersed for much of the rest of the Atlantic Basin.

The recent dust “activity” - perhaps the most extensive in years last week - as a whole is quite typical for June & July & is indicative of generally dry mid & upper level air which can often times inhibit tropical development. However, I’ve seen tropical systems thrive just outside the dust cloud ... or once away from the dusty atmosphere (see 2004)... so it’s not a “shoe in” that there will be no tropical development just because a lot of dust exists (see Dolly this week & Dorian last year). Other factors have to be considered such as the overall shear values across the Atlantic Basin, general vertical motion values & sea surface temps. which are nowhere near their seasonal peak yet.

Bottom line: we have a long ways to go (5 months) yet in the hurricane season with plenty of time to see the active basin we are anticipating.

Atlantic dust:

2020 names..... “Edouard” is next on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random by the World Meteorological Organization... repeat every 6 years... historic storms are retired (Florence & Michael last year) & Dorian is certain to be retired from the ’19 list....

East Atlantic:

Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear of which there is plenty across most of the Atlantic at the moment:

Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):

Deep oceanic heat content is extreme over the NW Caribbean:

Sea surface temp. anomalies:

SE U.S. surface map:

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

Surface analysis of the Gulf:


Global tropical activity: