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A cut-off upper (500mb/30,000 feet) low continues to spin over the Eastern U.S. As a result, surface low pressure has developed offshore of the Carolina’s & Georgia & will move into N. Carolina through early Wed. Heavy rain will pinwheel onshore of the Carolina’s & Virginia but no time for much in the way of true tropical development.
Meanwhile... a good deal of Saharan dust (6th image below) is over the Central & Eastern Atlantic. Such large dust clouds are very typical for June & July & is indicative of generally dry mid & upper level air which typically inhibits tropical development.
2020 names..... “Dolly” is next on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random by the World Meteorological Organization... repeat every 6 years... historic storms are retired (Florence & Michael last year) & Dorian is certain to be retired from the ’19 list....
Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear of which there is plenty across most of the Atlantic at the moment:
Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):
Deep oceanic heat content is extreme over the NW Caribbean:
Sea surface temp. anomalies:
SE U.S. surface map:
Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:
Surface analysis of the Gulf:
Global tropical activity:
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