Weather

Talking the Tropics With Mike: Weak tropical wave approaching the SE Caribbean

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LOCAL - Jacksonville/NE Fl./SE Ga. impacts from “Cristobal”:

The Atlantic Basin has gone mostly quiet. Low pressure is continues to spin over the Central Atlantic with some potential for subtropical development while drifting westward. Nothing significant expected.

We still need to keep an eye on the NW Caribbean &/or Gulf of Mexico for possible development later this month. In fact, a tropical wave is approaching the SE Caribbean & might be something to monitor for long range development. For the moment... lots of shear should limit much organization but some “squally” weather will occur over the Southern Lesser Antilles.

Otherwise we’re in “good shape” through the weekend in the tropics.


Atlantic dust:

2020 names..... “Dolly” is next on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random by the World Meteorological Organization... repeat every 6 years... historic storms are retired (Florence & Michael last year) & Dorian is certain to be retired from the ’19 list....


East Atlantic:


Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear of which there is plenty across the Atlantic at the moment:

Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):

Deep oceanic heat content is extreme over the NW Caribbean:

Sea surface temp. anomalies:

SE U.S. surface map:

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

Surface analysis of the Gulf:

Caribbean:

Global tropical activity: