Talking the Tropics With Mike: Weak trough of low pressure off the U.S. east coast

In fact most of the globe void of tropical trouble

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The weak low pressure system that moved ashore near & just north of Jacksonville Monday is getting squeezed to the northeast as essentially an elongated trough of low pressure. No significant tropical development is likely.

The rest of the Atlantic Basin is quiet though we continue to see a gradual uptick in the tropical waves rolling west off Africa. At this point, none of the waves are expected to show much development this week.



Saharan dust. Dry air - yellow/orange/red/pink - is extensive over the Caribbean & Central & Eastern Atlantic. Such widespread dust is common early in the hurricane season - through July - & is indicative of dry air that can impede the development of tropical cyclones. However, sometimes “wanna’ be” waves will just wait until they get to the other side of the plume then try to develop if everything else happens to be favorable.

2021 names..... “Fred” is the next name on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random by the World Meteorological Organization... repeat every 6 years... historic storms are retired (Florence & Michael in ’18... Dorian in ’19 & Laura, Eta & Iota in ‘20). Last year - 2020 - had a record 30 named storms. The WMO decided beginning in 2021 that the Greek alphabet will be no longer used & instead there will be a supplemental list of names if the first list is exhausted (has only happened twice - 2005 & 2020). More on the history of naming tropical cyclones * here *.

East Atlantic:

Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear:

Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):

Deep oceanic heat content continues to increase across the Gulf, Caribbean & deep tropical Atlantic & has become pretty impressive from the Central/NW Caribbean into the Gulf of Mexico:

Sea surface temp. anomalies:

SE U.S. surface map:

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

Surface analysis of the Gulf:

Caribbean:

Atlantic Basin wave forecast for 24, 48 & 72 hours respectively:

West Pacific IR satellite:


Global tropical activity: