Talking the Tropics With Mike: Well organized tropical wave expected to develop into a tropical storm

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*** All eyes on the strong tropical wave/low pressure - ‘92-L’ / “Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine” moving west across the Central Atlantic - still unclear exactly how this scenario will unfold but some impacts to Fl. are possible over the weekend - stay up to date.

Indications are that the system will be very near Fl. by late in the weekend/early next week but - as it looks right now - not real strong. If true, primary local impacts for Jacksonville/NE Fl./SE Ga. would be heavy rain & perhaps gusty winds. All, of course, predicated on the exact location & strength. ***

I cannot emphasize enough that’s very early “in the game” on this system. There will almost certainly be changes to the track, intensity & impacts.

A buoy near the tropical wave indicates winds near tropical storm strength (39 mph), so it may not be long before we an official upgrade to a tropical storm (”Isaias”). Hurricane hunter recon will investigate the system Tue. afternoon.

The ultimate track will likely hinge on two things:

(1) the Bermuda high to the north which is broad & strong.

(2) intensity. Weaker - will be more west with a slower turn more northward.... stronger - more north earlier. It’s possible that Puerto Rico & Hispaniola may also have a “say” if there’s any land interaction.

Forecast models - no surprise - have been & continue to be at odds with one another & sometimes at odds with themselves (from one cycle run to the next). It’s way too early to get too caught up in single model runs or to start to panic(!).

The European model has started to trend north & a little stronger bringing a tropical cyclone to near S. Florida over the weekend... the GFS is now relatively similar though a bit east in the long run... & the UKMET is between the two but has trended toward the European with a tropical cyclone in the vicinity of Fl. over the by the weekend.

Overall forecast models recently have generally trended north. Since the wave appears to be organizing/strengthening.... & the Bermuda high is strong, it seems likely the track will be near the Greater Antilles (Leeward Islands) then a move northwest, possibly N/NW. Stronger/earlier development would tend to support a more northward track solution. There is a good deal of shear in the vicinity of the wave now - on the order of 25-30+ mph - so any short term organization will likely be slow. But once farther west, shear relaxes. This in itself may lend to a more westward solution before gaining much latitude. One to watch no doubt!

E. Atlantic tropical wave/disturbance spaghetti plots:

Atlantic dust continues to spill west off of the Saharan desert over the E. Atlantic. Tropical waves continue to “fester” along the south edge of the dust & have the potential to thrive once away from the dust.

2020 names..... “Isaias” is next on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random by the World Meteorological Organization... repeat every 6 years... historic storms are retired (Florence & Michael last year) & Dorian is certain to be retired from the ’19 list....

East Atlantic:

Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear of which there is plenty across most of the Atlantic at the moment:

Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):

Deep oceanic heat content is extreme over the NW Caribbean:

Sea surface temp. anomalies:

SE U.S. surface map:

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

Surface analysis of the Gulf:


In the East Pacific.... “Douglas” is moving away from the Hawaiian Islands after passing by to the north.

Global tropical activity: