Talking the Tropics With Mike: Alberto & the forecast models

May 31, 2018 — The "Buresh Bottom Line": Always be prepared!..... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.

The first named storm in May to form over/near the Gulf of Mexico since 1976 -- & only 5th since 1851 -- "Alberto" moved ashore late Memorial Day afternoon northwest of Panama City, Fl. in the Panhandle & has become a remnant low after making it all the way to Michigan by Friday!

Alberto was the fifth named storm to hit Florida since August 2016 (Hermine - Aug., 2016... Julia - Sept., 2016... Emily Aug., 2017 & Irma in Sept., 2017) [Matthew never made landfall on Fl. soil]... & was the longest lasting - 3.5+ days - May named storm over the Atlantic Basin since 1953.

Forecast models did reasonably well on the early season subtropical (not a fully warm core system but nothing new in the "weather world").  The GFS was particularly good at sniffing out some kind of long term development though admittedly the model was all over the place at times on location & especially intensity.  The GFS was generally too strong early on..... & a bit too weak once the system was developing though really not terribly far off indicating at times an open wave or even a series of smaller surface reflections.  The European forecast model started to show development about 7-9 days in advance but was consistently too strong & too far west.  The general idea of heavy rain along the Gulf Coast worked out well.  All in all... a decent "dry run" in advance of the official start of the Atlantic Basin hurricane season on June 1st.

May tropical cyclones have occurred 4 times in the last 5 years but developed over the Atlantic:

2016 (1 - Bonnie)... 2015 (1 - Ana)... 2012 (2 - Alberto & Beryl).

The list of names repeats every 6 years, & - interestingly - Alberto was also a May storm in 2012.  In fact, 6 years ago Memorial Day on May 28th, strong tropical storm "Beryl" came ashore near Jacksonville Beach.

The Atlantic Basin is now quiet from a tropical standpoint:

Tropical moisture continues to stream northward up the Fl. Peninsula which will keep heavy rain potential in place through early Thu. evening....

Water vapor imagery:

Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear......

Weekly rainfall forecast:

Radar imagery from the S. Fl., Water Management District:

Deep oceanic heat content is typically lacking in May & this year is no different:

Sea surface temp. anomalies (a little cool either side of Fl.):

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SE U.S. surface map:

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Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

Surface analysis of the Gulf:

Caribbean:

Extensive hurricane Irma recap from Sept., 2017 - click here.

Cox Media Group