• Talking the Tropics With Mike: Another strong cold front set to move into the W. Atlantic

    By: Michael Buresh

    Updated:

    Nov. 8, 2019 - The "Buresh Bottom Line": Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.  

    STAY INFORMED: Get the * FREE * First Alert Weather app

    FREE NEWS UPDATES, ALERTS: Action News Jax app for Apple | For Android

    WATCH "Surviving the Storm"

    READ the First Alert Hurricane Center "Survival Guide"

    RECAP "Hurricane Dorian: A True Tropical Beast"

    **No areas of concern across the Atlantic that would affect the U.S. or any other land areas **

    There's some "disturbed" weather over the far Southwest Caribbean.  Proximity to land should limit much development.  A couple of tropical waves are located between the Caribbean & the west coast of Africa but shear will limit any development with little chance for the waves making it very far west.  

    Overall... the pattern over the Atlantic Basin looks a lot like late fall.  Frequent cold fronts will push farther & farther south & east during the next one to two weeks thanks to a rather persistent & further south development of a series of upper level troughs.  Low pressure will occasionally develop along the fronts over the Atlantic but no indication - at this time - of any tropical development.

    Nov. is the last "official" month of the Atlantic hurricane season.  Tropical cyclone origins - since 1851 - favor the still warm Western Caribbean & the Central Atlantic.  Only two hurricanes have ever made a U.S. landfall in Nov. - both in Florida: "Yankee" on Nov. 4, 1935 - at Miami..... & "Kate" in the Panhandle on Nov. 22, 1985.

    Other notable storms include "loopy" Gordon in 1994... Lenny in 1999... Paloma in 2008 & Ida in 2009.

     

     

    Atlantic dust:

    2019 names..... "Sebastien" is next on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random... repeat every 6 years... historic storms are retired (Florence & Michael last year) & Dorian is almost certain to be next:

     

    East Atlantic:

    Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear of which there is plenty across the Atlantic at the moment:

    The Atlantic Basin:

    Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):

    Deep oceanic heat content is extreme over the NW Caribbean:

    Sea surface temp. anomalies:

    SE U.S. surface map:

    Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

    Surface analysis of the Gulf:

    Caribbean:

     

    Global tropical activity:

    Weakening "Halong" has turned northeast over the NW Pacific well to the east of Japan & will be of no threat to land:

    "Nakri" will move west toward China while weakening upon approach to the coast:

    "Matmo" will be weakening while moving into India & Myanmar:

    Next Up: