Talking the Tropics With Mike: Atlantic stays quiet

Weakening cyclone over Arabian Sea

Talking the Tropics With Mike: Atlantic stays quiet

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There were no global tropical cyclones from the 2nd week of May until the 2nd week of June - not very common.  There is now a weakening cyclone over the Northern Arabian Sea in what is an otherwise quiet globe when it comes to the tropics.

First - for the Atlantic Basin - there are a few clusters & bands of thunderstorms but no surface development.  The ITCZ (Intertropical Convergence Zone) has become active with showers & thunderstorms between S. America & Africa but again no indication of an organizing area of low pressure. So the Atlantic remains quiet overall.

2019 names..... "Andrea" was briefly upgraded in May.  Next on the list: "Barry" (names are picked at random... repeat every 6 years... historic storms are retired (Florence & Michael last year):

Atlantic Basin:

East Atlantic:



Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear of which there is plenty across the Atlantic at the moment:

The Atlantic Basin.....

Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):

Deep oceanic heat content:

Sea surface temp. anomalies show some "cool" water over the Caribbean & the deep tropical development region of the Atlantic..... for now:

SE U.S. surface map:

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

Surface analysis of the Gulf:



In the Arabian Sea... cyclone "Vayu" continues to weaken west of India. Tropical cyclones this far north in the Arabian Sea are relatively rare.  The cyclone is battling shear & its own very slow movement (upwelling) as Vayu stays over the Northern Arabian Sea while meandering & weakening.