• Talking the Tropics With Mike: Atlantic stays quiet

    By: Michael Buresh

    Updated:

    June 17, 2019 - The "Buresh Bottom Line": Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.  

    STAY INFORMED: Get the * FREE * First Alert Weather app

    FREE NEWS UPDATES, ALERTS: Action News Jax app for Apple | For Android

    WATCH "Surviving the Storm"

    READ the First Alert Hurricane Center "Survival Guide"

    There were no global tropical cyclones from the 2nd week of May until the 2nd week of June - not very common.  There is now a weakening cyclone over the Northern Arabian Sea in what is an otherwise quiet globe when it comes to the tropics.

    First - for the Atlantic Basin - there are a few clusters & bands of thunderstorms but no surface development.  The ITCZ (Intertropical Convergence Zone) has become active with showers & thunderstorms between S. America & Africa but again no indication of an organizing area of low pressure. So the Atlantic remains quiet overall.

    2019 names..... "Andrea" was briefly upgraded in May.  Next on the list: "Barry" (names are picked at random... repeat every 6 years... historic storms are retired (Florence & Michael last year):

    Atlantic Basin:

    East Atlantic:

    Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear of which there is plenty across the Atlantic at the moment:

    The Atlantic Basin.....

    Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):

    Deep oceanic heat content:

    Sea surface temp. anomalies show some "cool" water over the Caribbean & the deep tropical development region of the Atlantic..... for now:

    SE U.S. surface map:

    Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

    Surface analysis of the Gulf:

    Caribbean:

     

    In the Arabian Sea... cyclone "Vayu" continues to weaken west of India. Tropical cyclones this far north in the Arabian Sea are relatively rare.  The cyclone is battling shear & its own very slow movement (upwelling) as Vayu stays over the Northern Arabian Sea while meandering & weakening.  

    Next Up: