Talking the Tropics With Mike: Barry continues to weaken while moving inland

July 14, 2019 — The "Buresh Bottom Line": Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.

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*** Tropical storm WARNING, storm surge WARNING & Hurricane WARNING coastal Louisiana.....

Barry will have NO direct impacts for Jacksonville/NE Fl. & SE Ga.

The average date for the first Atlantic tropical system is July 9th, so we were about "on schedule" (Barry was upgraded July 11th). The last two U.S. landfalling July tropical systems were tropical storm Emily in 2017 (Central Florida) and hurricane Arthur in 2014 (N. Carolina).

Well... Barry was deemed a hurricane by the NHC Sat. morning. If sustained hurricane force winds ever reached the surface, it was over a small area east/southeast & perhaps south of the center & mainly over water. Barry has had a history of looking disheveled on satellite imagery & Sunday is no exception with the center of Western Louisiana helping to create north/south bands of convection to the east while there's a blob of strong convection over the NW Gulf.

Heavy rainfall remains the primary threat & concern. 6-12 inches or more of rain is possible for parts of Louisiana & Mississippi. Major flooding is likely in what has been a wet spring & early summer with already high levels on the Mississippi River & its tributaries.

It's important not to get too caught up on exactly where the center is & is forecast to be. Especially in the case of less well developed tropical cyclones like Barry, hazards extend far away from the center. New Orleans will be in some of the bands of very heavy rainfall that will repeatedly move across the city. While rainfall may ultimately be heaviest - 1-2 feet - a little west of New Orleans over the heart of Louisiana, serious flooding is still likely for New Orleans given strong onshore flow off the ocean feeding into the city's waterways in combination with at least 6-12" of rain, possibly more.

Model plots:.

Rainfall forecast through the weekend is very heavy along the Gulf Coast closest to Barry with the potential for considerable flooding for New Orleans & much of Louisiana & Mississippi with very heavy rain as far north as the Ohio River.

Radar imagery courtesy S. Florida Water Management District:

Dr. Phil Klotzbach, Colorado St. University produced the image below showing the Gulf is "sweet spot" for tropical development in July but - interestingly - no hurricane has had its genesis (formation) over the Gulf in July going back to 1851. So - from that standpoint - Barry is making history.

2019 names..... "Andrea" was briefly upgraded in May. Next on the list: "Barry" (names are picked at random... repeat every 6 years... historic storms are retired (Florence & Michael last year):

Atlantic Basin - several tropical waves over the deep tropical Atlantic but no threat for development at this time....

East Atlantic:

Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear of which there is plenty across the Atlantic at the moment:

The Atlantic Basin:

Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):

Deep oceanic heat content:

Sea surface temp. anomalies show some "cool" water remaining over the E. Atlantic but avg. to above avg. temps. for much of the rest of the Atlantic Basin.....