Talking the Tropics With Mike: Barry moving inland over Louisiana

July 13, 2019 — The "Buresh Bottom Line": Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.

STAY INFORMED: Get the * FREE * First Alert Weather app

FREE NEWS UPDATES, ALERTS: Action News Jax app for Apple | For Android

WATCH "Surviving the Storm"

READ the First Alert Hurricane Center "Survival Guide"

*** Tropical storm WARNING, storm surge WARNING & Hurricane WARNING coastal Louisiana.....

Barry will have NO direct impacts for Jacksonville/NE Fl. & SE Ga.

The average date for the first Atlantic tropical system is July 9th, so we're about "on schedule". The last two U.S. landfalling July tropical systems were tropical storm Emily in 2017 (Central Florida) and hurricane Arthur in 2014 (N. Carolina).

Well... Barry was deemed a hurricane by the NHC Sat. morning. If sustained hurricane force winds are reaching the surface, it's over a small area east/southeast & perhaps south of the center & mainly over water. More than likely, hurricane force wind gusts will be all that's measured over any land areas. No eye has formed with Barry & weakening will commence now that the storm is moving inland losing its "energy source" - the warm Gulf water.

It's a matter of semantics - whether a hurricane or tropical storm.... extreme rainfall remains the primary threat & concern. 2 feet or more of rain is possible for parts of Louisiana & Mississippi. Major if not historical flooding is likely in what has been a wet spring & early summer with already high levels on the Mississippi River & its tributaries. Significant storm surge will occur over SE Louisiana & coastal Mississsippi & - to some degree - for coastal Alabama. Convective "bursts" (nearly nonstop t'storm development) - which began early Fri. - will likely continue through Sunday & may still cause the center to "jump around" some through Sat. night until the center is firmly over land moving north.

While the center of the storm will be well west of New Orleans, it's important not to get too caught up on exactly where the center is & is forecast to be. Especially in the case of less well developed tropical cyclones like Barry, hazards extend far away from the center. New Orleans will be in some of the bands of very heavy rainfall that will repeatedly move across the city. While rainfall may ultimately be heaviest - 1-2 feet - a little west of New Orleans across the heart of Louisiana, serious flooding is still likely for New Orlenas given strong onshore flow off the ocean feeding into the city's waterways in combination with at least 6-12" of rain, possibly more.

Model plots:.

Sea surface temps. over the Gulf are plenty warm enough to support &/or help tropical development.... as highs as the upper 80s over parts of the Northern Gulf with particularly warm water temps. just about right where Barry is expected to track off the coast of Louisiana.

Rainfall forecast through the weekend is very heavy along the Gulf Coast closest to Barry with the potential for considerable flooding for New Orleans & much of Louisiana & Mississippi with very heavy rain as far north as the Ohio River.

Radar imagery courtesy S. Florida Water Management District:

Dr. Phil Klotzbach, Colorado St. University produced the image below showing the Gulf is "sweet spot" for tropical development in July but - interestingly - no hurricane has had its genesis (formation) over the Gulf in July going back to 1851. So - from that standpoint - Barry is making history.

2019 names..... "Andrea" was briefly upgraded in May. Next on the list: "Barry" (names are picked at random... repeat every 6 years... historic storms are retired (Florence & Michael last year):

Atlantic Basin:

A weak wave is over the Eastern Atlantic but there does not seem to be much support for long term development....

East Atlantic:

Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear of which there is plenty across the Atlantic at the moment:

The Atlantic Basin:

Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):

Deep oceanic heat content:

Sea surface temp. anomalies show some "cool" water remaining over the E. Atlantic but avg. to above avg. temps. for much of the rest of the Atlantic Basin.....