• Talking the Tropics With Mike: Barry remnants starting to accelerate to the east/northeast

    By: Michael Buresh

    Updated:

    July 16, 2019 - The "Buresh Bottom Line": Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.  

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    The last Barry advisory was issued by the NHC Mon. morning.....

    Barry was deemed a hurricane by the NHC Sat. morning.  If sustained hurricane force winds ever reached the surface, it was over a small area east/southeast & perhaps south of the center & mainly over water.  Barry is being picked up by the jet stream & will accelerate to the northeast then east across the Ohio Valley all the way to New England still producing pockets of heavy rain near its path along with isolated tornadoes.

    Rainfall forecast:

    2019 names..... "Chantal" is next on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random... repeat every 6 years... historic storms are retired (Florence & Michael last year):

    Atlantic Basin - there are no other areas of concern across the Atlantic Basin.  A strong wave is moving west off the coast of Africa but no signs of long term organization.  Still a little early for development so far east + sea surface temps. remain cooler than average over the E. Atlantic.

    East Atlantic:

    Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear of which there is plenty across the Atlantic at the moment:

    The Atlantic Basin:

    Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):

    Deep oceanic heat content:

    Sea surface temp. anomalies show some "cool" water remaining over the E. Atlantic but avg. to above avg. temps. for much of the rest of the Atlantic Basin.....

    SE U.S. surface map:

    Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

    Surface analysis of the Gulf:

    Caribbean:

     

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