Talking the Tropics With Mike: Barry weakening over Missouri Valley

July 15, 2019 — The "Buresh Bottom Line": Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.  

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The last Barry advisory was issued by the NHC Mon. morning.....

Well... Barry was deemed a hurricane by the NHC Sat. morning.  If sustained hurricane force winds ever reached the surface, it was over a small area east/southeast & perhaps south of the center & mainly over water.  Barry will continue slowly moving northeast while the surface reflection dissipates over the Missouri & Ohio Valley's.  Heavy convection - capable of producing very heavy rain & isolated tornadoes - continues mainly east of the center arching southward all the way to the Gulf Coast.

Rainfall forecast:

2019 names..... "Chantal" is next on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random... repeat every 6 years... historic storms are retired (Florence & Michael last year):

Atlantic Basin:

East Atlantic:

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Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear of which there is plenty across the Atlantic at the moment:

The Atlantic Basin:

Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):

Deep oceanic heat content:

Sea surface temp. anomalies show some "cool" water remaining over the E. Atlantic but avg. to above avg. temps. for much of the rest of the Atlantic Basin.....

SE U.S. surface map:

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

Surface analysis of the Gulf:

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Caribbean:

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Cox Media Group