Talking the Tropics With Mike: Beryl moving over the NW Atlantic - no Jacksonville impacts

July 15, 2018 — The "Buresh Bottom Line": Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.

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Lingering "Beryl" is moving into the North Atlantic & was upgraded to subtropical Beryl Sat. afternoon.  So here we go again (subtropical Alberto) - just means the system does not have a fully warm core. Newfoundland will have their 2nd round of heavy rain & wind courtesy the tropics by Tue.  There will be no impact on Jacksonville or any of the U.S. east coast.

Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear......

The rest of the Atlantic Basin is pretty quiet.  A fairly strong wave has come off the coast of Africa but dry mid & upper level air will likley help to limit development.

Full Atlantic Basin.  A fairly active wave has come off the coast of Africa but development looks unlikely...

Dust is prevalent over the Atlantic Basin - not really all that uncommon this time of year....

Water vapor imagery below shows a lot of dry in front (west) of & north of Beryl.....

Remnants of Beryl over the SW Atlantic....

Gulf of Mexico:

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Water vapor imagery:

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Deep oceanic heat content is slowly increasing.....

Sea surface temp. anomalies are below avg. across much of the middle of the Atlantic with unseasonably cool temps. off the coast of Africa....

SE U.S. surface map:

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

Surface analysis of the Gulf:

Caribbean:

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