Talking the Tropics With Mike: Bud goes hurricane off the coast of Mexico

T'storm clusters over SW Caribbean

Talking the Tropics With Mike: Bud goes hurricane off the coast of Mexico

June 11, 2018 — The "Buresh Bottom Line": Always be prepared!..... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.

Watch "Surviving the Storm".....

An early season storm - "Alberto" is in the books so "Beryl" will be the next named storm in the Atlantic Basin.

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There continue to be disorganized & pulsing yet - at times - strong/heavy showers & storms over & near the SW Caribbean where the GFS model has been indicating tropical development this week that would eventually move over the Gulf of Mexico.   The model has shifted west toward Texas vs. model runs of 5-8 days ago & is generally weaker.  The European model shows more of an open trough of low pressure while the UKMET model shows some very weak low pressure developing over the SW Caribbean hugging the South & Central American coasts.  The GFS model has by far been the most bullish & indications are that anything that might form would be weak & likely heavily weighted on the east side - typical of early season systems, like Alberto in late May.  Some "folks" have jumped on the bandwagon of the GFS since the model sniffed out Alberto a couple of weeks ago but the model also had mid May development that failed to occur... & the overall pattern is not particularly favorable - good deal of mid & upper level shear.

The Climate Prediction Center's (CPC) mapping of velocity potential anomalies can be a good signal for potential tropical development.  In very general terms.... the green lines represent rising air which is favorable for convection & thereby can indicate when/where development might be favorable for tropical systems.  A major "pulse" is over the W. Pacific & could be something to watch for late this month into early July.  Sandwiched between two areas of "sinking" air over the Atlantic & Central Pacific, is an area of "rising" air over the E. Pacific where two tropical cyclones have formed.  The edge of this favorable area does include the W. Gulf of Mexico.

Gulf of Mexico:

Water vapor imagery:

Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear.  A hostile environment remains over the Caribbean & Gulf.

Deep oceanic heat content is typically lacking in May & this year is no different:

Sea surface temp. anomalies are a little below avg. across much of the middle of the Atlantic with unseasonably cool temps. off the coast of Africa....


SE U.S. surface map:


Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

Surface analysis of the Gulf:


Meanwhile.... the E. Pacific is much more active.  "Aletta" is weakening & will soon dissipate over the E. Pacific well south & west of the Baja of California.   "Bud" has formed off the coast of Mexico quickly becoming a hurricane while moving northwest.  The system will weaken upon approach to the Baja of California late in the week.  Rough seas & surf will occur along the west coast of Mexico & some tropical moisture may move into parts of Arizona & S. California by the weekend possibly producing some areas of heavy rain.