Weather

Talking the Tropics With Mike: Cosme forms over East Pacific

July 6, 2019 — The "Buresh Bottom Line": Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.  

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The average date for the first storm of the Atlantic season is July 9th with typical tracks into the Gulf of Mexico or Western Atlantic.

The Atlantic Basin remains quiet while the East Pacific continues to be the active area for now as Barbara became a "major" hurricane Tue... has peaked... & is dissipating followed by "Cosme" which has formed over the E. Pacific.

A look at the velocity potential anomalies does show "upward motion" (green lines) over the Central/Eastern Pacific which has likely aided the development of Alvin & Barbara last week & now Cosme.  This upward motion is "oozing" into the Atlantic Basin & could spark the first development of the Atlantic season (other than brief Andrea in May) over the next week or two.  There is not anything to really "hang your hat on" for the moment though some long range forecast models have occasionally - yet inconsistently - jumped on some tropical development anywhere from the W. Atlantic to the Gulf of Mexico.  Something to keep an eye on over the next couple of weeks.

2019 names..... "Andrea" was briefly upgraded in May.  Next on the list: "Barry" (names are picked at random... repeat every 6 years... historic storms are retired (Florence & Michael last year):

Atlantic Basin:

0

East Atlantic:

1

There are some disturbances (waves) moving west off of Africa, but it's early in the season for development so deep over the tropics (not to mention cooler than avg. sea surface temps.), & the convection has weakened in association with the wave.

Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear of which there is plenty across the Atlantic at the moment:

The Atlantic Basin:

Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):

Deep oceanic heat content:

Sea surface temp. anomalies show some "cool" water remaining over the E. Atlantic but avg. to above avg. temps. for much of the rest of the Atlantic Basin.....

SE U.S. surface map:

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

Surface analysis of the Gulf:

Caribbean:

In the E. Pacific.... Barbara is becoming a remnant low while Cosme has developed far to the southeast.  Cosme will be in only a semi favorable environment over the weekend before shear increases & the storm encounter cooler water early next week - no threat to any land areas.