Talking the Tropics With Mike: Cyclone (hurricane) continues over the Arabian Sea

Quiet Atlantic

Talking the Tropics With Mike: Cyclone (hurricane) continues over the Arabian Sea

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We're in "good shape" right now across the Atlantic Basin....

There were no global tropical cyclones from the 2nd week of May until the 2nd week of June - not very common.  There is now a cyclone over the Northern Arabian Sea.

2019 names..... "Andrea" was briefly upgraded in May.  Next on the list: "Barry" (names are picked at random... repeat every 6 years... historic storms are retired (Florence & Michael last year):

Graph below courtesy Dr. Phil Klotzbach - U.S. - landfalling U.S. hurricnes by month strongly favoring August, September & October:

Atlantic Basin:

East Atlantic:



Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear of which there is plenty across the Atlantic at the moment:

The Atlantic Basin.....

Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):

Deep oceanic heat content:

Sea surface temp. anomalies show some "cool" water over the Caribbean & the deep tropical development region of the Atlantic..... for now:

SE U.S. surface map:

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

Surface analysis of the Gulf:




In the Arabian Sea... cyclone "Vayu" has formed & will impact the west coast of India. Tropical cyclones this far north in the Arabian Sea are relatively rare as the hurricane is forecast to be near Cat. 2 upon closest approach during the day Thursday.... the eye may stay just offshore followed by a very slow westward movement away from the coast of India.  Powerful tropical cyclones are much more common to the east (Bay of Bengal, for example) & south in this part of the world.