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We're in "good shape" right now across the Atlantic Basin....
There were no global tropical cyclones from the 2nd week of May until the 2nd week of June - not very common. There is now a cyclone over the Northern Arabian Sea.
2019 names..... "Andrea" was briefly upgraded in May. Next on the list: "Barry" (names are picked at random... repeat every 6 years... historic storms are retired (Florence & Michael last year):
Graph below courtesy Dr. Phil Klotzbach - U.S. - landfalling U.S. hurricnes by month strongly favoring August, September & October:
Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear of which there is plenty across the Atlantic at the moment:
The Atlantic Basin.....
Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):
Deep oceanic heat content:
Sea surface temp. anomalies show some "cool" water over the Caribbean & the deep tropical development region of the Atlantic..... for now:
SE U.S. surface map:
Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:
Surface analysis of the Gulf:
In the Arabian Sea... cyclone "Vayu" has formed & will impact the west coast of India. Tropical cyclones this far north in the Arabian Sea are relatively rare as the hurricane is forecast to be near Cat. 2 upon closest approach during the day Thursday.... the eye may stay just offshore followed by a very slow westward movement away from the coast of India. Powerful tropical cyclones are much more common to the east (Bay of Bengal, for example) & south in this part of the world.
© 2019 Cox Media Group.