• Talking the Tropics With Mike: Cyclone (hurricane) continues over the Arabian Sea

    By: Michael Buresh

    Updated:

    June 13, 2019 - The "Buresh Bottom Line": Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.  

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    We're in "good shape" right now across the Atlantic Basin....

    There were no global tropical cyclones from the 2nd week of May until the 2nd week of June - not very common.  There is now a cyclone over the Northern Arabian Sea.

    2019 names..... "Andrea" was briefly upgraded in May.  Next on the list: "Barry" (names are picked at random... repeat every 6 years... historic storms are retired (Florence & Michael last year):

    Graph below courtesy Dr. Phil Klotzbach - U.S. - landfalling U.S. hurricnes by month strongly favoring August, September & October:

    Atlantic Basin:

    East Atlantic:

    Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear of which there is plenty across the Atlantic at the moment:

    The Atlantic Basin.....

    Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):

    Deep oceanic heat content:

    Sea surface temp. anomalies show some "cool" water over the Caribbean & the deep tropical development region of the Atlantic..... for now:

    SE U.S. surface map:

    Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

    Surface analysis of the Gulf:

    Caribbean:

     

    In the Arabian Sea... cyclone "Vayu" has formed & will impact the west coast of India. Tropical cyclones this far north in the Arabian Sea are relatively rare as the hurricane is forecast to be near Cat. 2 upon closest approach during the day Thursday.... the eye may stay just offshore followed by a very slow westward movement away from the coast of India.  Powerful tropical cyclones are much more common to the east (Bay of Bengal, for example) & south in this part of the world.

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