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2018 Atlantic tropical depression/storm/hurricane tracks so far:
A persistent area of "disturbed" weather is over & near Hispaniola & Puerto Rico producing heavy rain at times. Mid & upper level shear should limit overall development - typical for this time of year though there may be some strengthening east of Florida thanks to interaction with a strong upper level trough that will be moving into the Eastern U.S. The disturbance will move more north to the east of Florida then finally a recurve to the northeast upon a merger with a cold front late this week into the weekend.
The band of clouds over the Eastern U.S. below is in association with the upper trough & surface cold front. As this upper system consolidates & intensifies by late week, the strong upper level trough will insure that '96-L' turns north then northeast well to the east of the U.S.
Forecast model spaghetti plots for Central Atlantic disturbance - '96-L' (lack of tracks because some models do not show development):
Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear:
The Atlantic Basin.....
Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):
Deep oceanic heat content is still high over the N. Central & NW Caribbean....
Sea surface temp. anomalies:
SE U.S. surface map:
Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:
Surface analysis of the Gulf:
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