• Talking the Tropics With Mike: Disturbance continues near the Greater Antilles

    By: Michael Buresh


    Nov. 14, 2018 - The "Buresh Bottom Line": Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.  

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    Historical hurricane Michael - post storm photos & video ** here **...... "Buresh Blog": Forecasting a Monster ** here **.....

    2018 Atlantic tropical depression/storm/hurricane tracks so far:

    A persistent area of "disturbed" weather is over & near Hispaniola & Puerto Rico producing heavy rain at times.  Mid & upper level shear should limit overall development - typical for this time of year though there may be some strengthening east of Florida thanks to interaction with a strong upper level trough that will be moving into the Eastern U.S.  The disturbance will move more north to the east of Florida then finally a recurve to the northeast upon a merger with a cold front late this week into the weekend.

    The band of clouds over the Eastern U.S. below is in association with the upper trough & surface cold front.  As this upper system consolidates & intensifies by late week, the strong upper level trough will insure that '96-L' turns north then northeast well to the east of the U.S.

    Forecast model spaghetti plots for Central Atlantic disturbance - '96-L' (lack of tracks because some models do not show development):

    Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear:

    The Atlantic Basin.....

    Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):

    Deep oceanic heat content is still high over the N. Central & NW Caribbean....

    Sea surface temp. anomalies:

    SE U.S. surface map:

    Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

    Surface analysis of the Gulf:



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