Talking the Tropics With Mike: Disturbance continues over the Central Atlantic

Slow development possible

Talking the Tropics With Mike: Disturbance continues over the Central Atlantic

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Historical hurricane Michael - post storm photos & video ** here **...... "Buresh Blog": Forecasting a Monster ** here **.....

2018 Atlantic tropical depression/storm/hurricane tracks so far:

A persistent area of "disturbed" weather - a large cluster of showers & t'storms - continues moving slowly west about halfway between the Caribbean & Africa.  Long range global forecast models have begun to latch on to this storminess & gradually develop - generally weak - low pressure upon approach to the Northern Lesser Antilles & Southeast Bahamas by the middle to end of the week.  From there it looks like a move more north to the east of Florida then finally a recurve to the northeast upon a merger with a cold front late next week.  So some tropical development - possibly "Patty" - with this system is not out of the question - something to watch late in the season (less than 3 weeks left in the official Atlantic hurricane season).

Forecast model spaghetti plots for Central Atlantic disturbance - '96-L' (lack of tracks because some models do not show development at this point):

Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear:

The Atlantic Basin.....


Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):


Deep oceanic heat content is still high over the N. Central & NW Caribbean....

Sea surface temp. anomalies:

SE U.S. surface map:

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

Surface analysis of the Gulf: