• Talking the Tropics With Mike: Disturbance continues to organize east of Puerto Rico

    By: Michael Buresh


    Nov. 12, 2018 - The "Buresh Bottom Line": Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.  

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    Historical hurricane Michael - post storm photos & video ** here **...... "Buresh Blog": Forecasting a Monster ** here **.....

    2018 Atlantic tropical depression/storm/hurricane tracks so far:

    A persistent area of "disturbed" weather - a large cluster of showers & t'storms with an active tropical wave - 96-L - continues moving west several hundred miles east of Puerto Rico.  Some gradual development is possible upon approach to the Northern Lesser Antilles & Southeast Bahamas over the next several days.  From there it looks like a move more north to the east of Florida then finally a recurve to the northeast upon a merger with a cold front late this week into the weekend.  

    So tropical development - possibly "Patty" - with this system is something to watch.  It does appear mid & upper level shear will be rather strong which should limit the overall intensity of '96-L'.  With movement east of the U.S. east coast, it would appear any impacts on Jacksonville & the local area would be minimal.

    Forecast model spaghetti plots for Central Atlantic disturbance - '96-L' (lack of tracks because some models do not show development at this point):

    Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear:

    The Atlantic Basin.....

    Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):

    Deep oceanic heat content is still high over the N. Central & NW Caribbean....

    Sea surface temp. anomalies:

    SE U.S. surface map:

    Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

    Surface analysis of the Gulf:



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