Talking the Tropics With Mike: Eye on Central Atlantic

Some slow development as disturbance moves west

Talking the Tropics With Mike: Eye on Central Atlantic

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Historical hurricane Michael - post storm photos & video ** here **...... "Buresh Blog": Forecasting a Monster ** here **.....

2018 Atlantic tropical depression/storm/hurricane tracks so far:

Overall - the Atlantic Basin has a late autumn look on satellite imagery with fronts deep into the southern latitudes with additional strong frontal systems moving across the U.S.

There has been a pretty persistent area of "disturbed" weather - clusters of showers & t'storms - about halfway between the Caribbean & Africa.  Long range global forecast models have begun to latch on to this storminess & gradually develop - generally weak - low pressure upon approach to the Lesser Antilles by the middle of next week.  From there it looks like a move more north to the east of Florida then finally a recurve to the northeast upon a merger with a cold front late next week.  So some tropical development with this system is not out of the question - something to watch late in the season (less than 3 weeks left in the official Atlantic hurricane season).

E. Atlantic:

Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear:

The Atlantic Basin.....

Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):


Deep oceanic heat content is still high over the N. Central & NW Caribbean....


Sea surface temp. anomalies:

SE U.S. surface map:

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

Surface analysis of the Gulf:


Globally....  - tropical storm "Alcide" east of Madagascar over the South Indian Ocean is slowly weakening.  Alcide has peaked in intensity while moving very little & should stay a little east of Madagascar while continuing to slowly weaken.