Talking the Tropics With Mike: Hurricane Willa headed for Mexico but NOT Jacksonville!

Heavy rain for the Gulf Coast this week

Talking the Tropics With Mike: Hurricane Willa headed for Mexico but NOT Jacksonville!

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Historical hurricane Michael - post storm photos & video ** here **...... "Buresh Blog": Forecasting a Monster ** here **.....

The East Pacific - as has been the case most of the hurricane season - remains active.  Once Cat. 5 hurricane "Willa" will turn northeast & make a landfall on the West Central Mexico coast Tue. night with a bullseye on Las Islas Marias & nearby areas.  Willa went through an eyewall replacement cycle late Mon. causing the typical restructuring/weakening of a powerful hurricane.  It appears that increasing southwest shear & relatively imminent landfall will limit re-intensification as long as there is not a quick re-emergence of a clear eye in the short term.  With that in mind, it looks like a Cat. 3 hit on the west coast of Mexico.

Willa's low level circulation will then quickly dissipate Wed./Wed. night over the rugged terrain of Mexico while the upper level reflection accelerates east/northeast with a deepening upper level trough over the U.S.  There will be NO impacts from Willa on the U.S., but the leftover upper level disturbance will help to develop a nontropical surface low over the Northern Gulf of Mexico this week + some of the tropical moisture from Willa will become entrained within the mid latitude trough dropping into the Central/Eastern U.S.

Willa forecast track:

Otherwise.... there are no areas of concern right now across the Atlantic Basin.  Low pressure is developing near the NW Gulf Coast south of Texas & will work northeast near or across Fl. & up the east coast &/or the far Western Atlantic through the weekend but will likely stay nontropical in nature.

A large area of storminess is over the E. Atlantic hundreds of miles east of the Lesser Antilles but any tropical or subtropical development will stay far to the east of the U.S. over the open Atlantic.

Powerful hurricane Willa can be seen on the far left edge of the satellite image below over the E. Pacific.

Atlantic Basin:

E. Atlantic:



Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear:

The Atlantic Basin.....

Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):

Deep oceanic heat content is seasonably high over the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico & SW Atlantic as one would expect in mid autumn....

Sea surface temp. anomalies:

A front has stalled near south Fl. & move back & forth (north & south) this week as upper level disturbances move west to east.  Surface low pressure will evolve later in the week over the Northern Gulf, the low looks to be nontropical in nature.

SE U.S. surface map:

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

Surface analysis of the Gulf: