• Talking the Tropics With Mike: Large area of heavy convection over the North Atlantic

    By: Michael Buresh


    Nov. 28, 2018 - The "Buresh Bottom Line": Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.  

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    Historical hurricane Michael - post storm photos & video ** here **...... "Buresh Blog": Forecasting a Monster ** here **.....

    2018 Atlantic tropical depression/storm/hurricane tracks so far:

    The final days of the '18 Atlantic hurricane season!.....

    Heavy convection has developed over the North & Central Atlantic in association with a nontropical low pressure system associated with a strong upper level trough that is ejecting to the northeast (which has provided Jacksonville the first freeze of the season).  This low is not expected to become tropical.

    Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear:

    The Atlantic Basin.....

    Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):

    Deep oceanic heat content is still high over the N. Central & NW Caribbean....

    Sea surface temp. anomalies:

    SE U.S. surface map:

    Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

    Surface analysis of the Gulf:



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