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**No areas of concern across the Atlantic that would affect the U.S. or any other land areas **
Disorganized low pressure will consolidate into a single stronger low pressure area northeast of Jacksonville & east of the Carolina's through Saturday. Tropical development is unlikely but some subtropical (or hybrid) characteristics - once east of Fl. - are possible. Though staying offshore, the low will produce gusty winds, rip currents, rough seas & surf & heavy rain at times for parts of coastal Florida & especially Georgia & the Carolina's. The low will start to accelerate east/northeast by Sunday/Mon. over the open Atlantic.
Nov. is the last "official" month of the Atlantic hurricane season. Only two hurricanes have ever made a U.S. landfall in Nov. - both in Florida: "Yankee" on Nov. 4, 1935 - at Miami..... & "Kate" in the Panhandle on Nov. 22, 1985.
Other notable storms include "loopy" Gordon in 1994... Lenny in 1999... Paloma in 2008 & Ida in 2009.
2019 names..... "Sebastien" is next on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random... repeat every 6 years... historic storms are retired (Florence & Michael last year) & Dorian is almost certain to be next:
Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear of which there is plenty across the Atlantic at the moment:
The Atlantic Basin:
Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):
Deep oceanic heat content is extreme over the NW Caribbean:
Sea surface temp. anomalies:
SE U.S. surface map:
Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:
Surface analysis of the Gulf:
Over the E. Pacific.... a tropical storm is developing & will impact the Southern Baja of California over the weekend but as a relatively weak system. Still... some flooding & rip currents, rough seas/surf will occur through Sunday.
Global tropical activity:
Typhoon "Fengshen" will recurve over the NW Pacific well to the east of Japan....
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