Talking the Tropics With Mike: Large low pressure area to develop offshore of Carolina's

Talking the Tropics With Mike: Large low pressure area to develop offshore of Carolina's

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**No areas of concern across the Atlantic that would affect the U.S. or any other land areas **

Disorganized low pressure will consolidate into a single stronger low pressure area northeast of Jacksonville & east of the Carolina's through Saturday.  Tropical development is unlikely but some subtropical (or hybrid) characteristics - once east of Fl. - are possible.  Though staying offshore, the low will produce gusty winds, rip currents, rough seas & surf & heavy rain at times for parts of coastal Florida & especially Georgia & the Carolina's.  The low will start to accelerate east/northeast by Sunday/Mon. over the open Atlantic.

Nov. is the last "official" month of the Atlantic hurricane season.  Only two hurricanes have ever made a U.S. landfall in Nov. - both in Florida: "Yankee" on Nov. 4, 1935 - at Miami..... & "Kate" in the Panhandle on Nov. 22, 1985.

Other notable storms include "loopy" Gordon in 1994... Lenny in 1999... Paloma in 2008 & Ida in 2009.

Atlantic dust:

2019 names..... "Sebastien" is next on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random... repeat every 6 years... historic storms are retired (Florence & Michael last year) & Dorian is almost certain to be next:

East Atlantic:

Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear of which there is plenty across the Atlantic at the moment:

The Atlantic Basin:

Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):

Deep oceanic heat content is extreme over the NW Caribbean:

Sea surface temp. anomalies:

SE U.S. surface map:

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

Surface analysis of the Gulf:

Caribbean:

Over the E. Pacific.... a tropical storm is developing & will impact the Southern Baja of California over the weekend but as a relatively weak system.  Still... some flooding & rip currents, rough seas/surf will occur through Sunday.

Global tropical activity:

Typhoon "Fengshen" will recurve over the NW Pacific well to the east of Japan....