• Talking the Tropics With Mike: Last advisory on "Debby"

    By: Michael Buresh


    Aug. 10, 2018 - The "Buresh Bottom Line": Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.  

    Watch "Surviving the Storm".....

    The last advisory on "Debby" was issued Thu. afternoon over the N. Atlantic.

    The Atlantic Basin is generally quiet though there are several tropical waves moving west from the coast of Africa.  Some initial development is possible but shear remains pretty strong closer to the Caribbean.

    Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear...... 

    The Atlantic Basin....


    Gulf of Mexico:

    Water vapor imagery:

    Deep oceanic heat content continues to increase over the Caribbean & Gulf of Mexico as one would expect now that we're in August.....

    Sea surface temp. anomalies are below avg. across much of the middle of the Atlantic with unseasonably cool temps. off the coast of Africa....

    SE U.S. surface map:

    Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

    Surface analysis of the Gulf:


    The Pacific remains active.... hurricane "Hector" continues to march west well south & west of the Hawaiian Islands.  "John" is over the Eastern Pacific moving west/northwest while weakening well west of the Baja of California.  But rough seas & surf will extend as far north as the beaches of Southern California. 

     "Kristy" is farther to the southwest & will stay over open water.




    Velocity potential anomalies - the map below - shows an area of "upward motion" (green lines) spreading east across the Pacific bleeding into the Atlantic Basin while most of the Atlantic Basin is dominated by "sinking" air.  This pattern - rising air - often correlates to an increase in tropical activity - as has been occurring over the E. Pacific..... & could be an indication of a named storm or two popping over the Atlantic later this month.

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