Talking the Tropics With Mike: Last month of the hurricane season!

Talking the Tropics With Mike: Last month of the hurricane season!

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**No areas of concern across the Atlantic that would affect the U.S. or any other land areas **

A rather strong upper level low is producing heavy showers & storms over the Central Atlantic which may lead to the development of low pressure.  There's some chance for long term subtropical or even tropical development, but the system looks to stay far out to sea.

Overall... the pattern over the Atlantic Basin looks a lot like late fall.  Frequent cold fronts will push farther & farther south & east during the next 7-10 days thanks to a rather persistent & further south development of a series of upper level troughs.  Low pressure will occasionally develop along the fronts over the Atlantic but no indication - at this time - of any tropical development.

Nov. is the last "official" month of the Atlantic hurricane season.  Tropical cyclone origins - since 1851 - favor the very warm Western Caribbean & the Central Atlantic.  Only two hurricanes have ever made a U.S. landfall in Nov. - both in Florida: "Yankee" on Nov. 4, 1935 - at Miami..... & "Kate" in the Panhandle in 1985.

Atlantic dust:

2019 names..... "Sebastien" is next on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random... repeat every 6 years... historic storms are retired (Florence & Michael last year) & Dorian is almost certain to be next:

East Atlantic:

Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear of which there is plenty across the Atlantic at the moment:

The Atlantic Basin:

Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):

Deep oceanic heat content is extreme over the NW Caribbean:

Sea surface temp. anomalies:

SE U.S. surface map:

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

Surface analysis of the Gulf:

Caribbean:

Global tropical activity:

"Maha" is over the Arabian Sea & will likely stay over the water & away from land: